Away
Los Angeles Rams
2-4
Home
Las Vegas Raiders
3-3
Model Win Probability
Los Angeles Rams · Away
69%
separation38%
Las Vegas Raiders · Home
31%
- Elo component
- 69% LA
- Efficiency component
- 81% LA
- Feature coverage
- 100%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-10-20T20:24:22.518Z
- Model
- pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3
Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.
Team Efficiency Comparison
0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.
Blended Team Metrics
| LA | Metric | LV |
|---|---|---|
| 0.093 | EPA / Play | -0.103 |
| 49.6% | Success Rate | 40.4% |
| 0.159 | Dropback EPA | 0.008 |
| -0.029 | Rush EPA | -0.284 |
| 14.0% | Explosive Play Rate | 10.7% |
| 46.6% | 3rd Down Conversion | 47.8% |
| 63.1% | Red Zone TD Rate | 56.5% |
| -0.041 | Def. EPA / Play Allowed | 0.015 |
Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.
Game Context
- Venue
- Allegiant Stadium
- Kickoff
- Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET
- Roof
- dome
- Surface
- grass
- Away rest
- 7 days
- Home rest
- 7 days
- Site
- Las Vegas Raiders home game
Player Impact
Matthew Stafford
QB2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- CMP/ATT
- 164/249
- Pass yds
- 1794
- Pass TD
- 11
- INT
- 6
- Y/A
- 7.2
- Sacks
- 10
Kyren Williams
RB2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- Carries
- 80
- Rush yds
- 393
- YPC
- 4.9
- Rush TD
- 4
- Targets
- 39
- Rec
- 30
Blake Corum
RB2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- Carries
- 47
- Rush yds
- 223
- YPC
- 4.7
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 13
- Rec
- 9
Puka Nacua
WR2026 Weeks 1–6; 4 games
- Targets
- 52
- Rec
- 37
- Rec yds
- 417
- YPR
- 11.3
- Rec TD
- 1
Davante Adams
WR2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- Targets
- 49
- Rec
- 30
- Rec yds
- 480
- YPR
- 16
- Rec TD
- 4
Away · Los Angeles Rams
Matthew Stafford
QB2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- CMP/ATT
- 164/249
- Pass yds
- 1794
- Pass TD
- 11
- INT
- 6
- Y/A
- 7.2
- Sacks
- 10
Kyren Williams
RB2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- Carries
- 80
- Rush yds
- 393
- YPC
- 4.9
- Rush TD
- 4
- Targets
- 39
- Rec
- 30
Blake Corum
RB2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- Carries
- 47
- Rush yds
- 223
- YPC
- 4.7
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 13
- Rec
- 9
Puka Nacua
WR2026 Weeks 1–6; 4 games
- Targets
- 52
- Rec
- 37
- Rec yds
- 417
- YPR
- 11.3
- Rec TD
- 1
Davante Adams
WR2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- Targets
- 49
- Rec
- 30
- Rec yds
- 480
- YPR
- 16
- Rec TD
- 4
Home · Las Vegas Raiders
Kirk Cousins
QB2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- CMP/ATT
- 135/213
- Pass yds
- 1582
- Pass TD
- 14
- INT
- 5
- Y/A
- 7.4
- Sacks
- 8
Ashton Jeanty
RB2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- Carries
- 98
- Rush yds
- 313
- YPC
- 3.2
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 36
- Rec
- 26
Mike Washington Jr.
RB2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- Carries
- 34
- Rush yds
- 168
- YPC
- 4.9
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 5
- Rec
- 3
Tre Tucker
WR2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- Targets
- 35
- Rec
- 24
- Rec yds
- 371
- YPR
- 15.5
- Rec TD
- 3
Cody White
WR2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- Targets
- 16
- Rec
- 7
- Rec yds
- 108
- YPR
- 15.4
- Rec TD
- 3
Injuries & Availability
Away · Los Angeles Rams
Davante AdamsWR
UNKNOWNHamstring; coach expects him to miss 6–10 weeks. Final game designation pending.
Checked Tue, Oct 20, 2026; game designation pending unless IR/PUP.
Myles GarrettEDGE
UNKNOWNKnee; coach did not expect him to return to practice this week.
Checked Tue, Oct 20, 2026; game designation pending unless IR/PUP.
Kobie TurnerDL
UNKNOWNGroin; coach said he will be placed on IR; transaction not yet confirmed.
Checked Tue, Oct 20, 2026; game designation pending unless IR/PUP.
Poona FordDL
UNKNOWNRuptured triceps; coach said he will miss the rest of the season.
Checked Tue, Oct 20, 2026; game designation pending unless IR/PUP.
Scoring by Quarter
Sample · 6 gamesAway · Los Angeles Rams
Home · Las Vegas Raiders
Latest News
- Sources: Rams signing McManus; 3rd kicker in three weeks
ESPN NFL · 1h ago · LA
- Report: Rams TE Terrance Ferguson not ready to come off IR
NBC Sports ProFootballTalk · 1h ago · LA
- Report: Rams TE Terrance Ferguson not ready to come off IR
Yahoo Sports NFL · 1h ago · LA
- From superteam to 2-4 disappointment? Barnwell on what has gone wrong for the Rams
ESPN NFL · 2h ago · LA
- Did Davante Adams play his final game with the Rams?
Yahoo Sports NFL · 3h ago · LA
Analytical Angles
Passing profile · LA
passingLos Angeles Rams: 77/100 league percentile in blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 7.
Passing profile · LV
passingLas Vegas Raiders: 32/100 league percentile in blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 7.
Defensive profile · LA / LV
efficiencyDefense EPA percentiles: Los Angeles Rams 71/100; Las Vegas Raiders 39/100. Lower EPA allowed rates better.
Availability watch
availabilityAvailability checked Tuesday, October 20. 4 named items in game notes; final designations remain subject to change. The forecast applies no separate injury, trade or lineup adjustment.
Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.
Keys to the Game
- Margin-aware Elo: Los Angeles Rams 69.2%.
- Rolling efficiency: Los Angeles Rams 81.2%.
- rushing: Los Angeles Rams 84/100, Las Vegas Raiders 0/100.
- offense: Los Angeles Rams 87/100, Las Vegas Raiders 13/100.
What Could Flip It
- passRush: Las Vegas Raiders 58/100 versus Los Angeles Rams 42/100.
- Los Angeles Rams have 6 completed 2026 games; Las Vegas Raiders have 6. Prior-season form is blended into efficiency.
- The model applies no explicit player-availability adjustment.
Model Analysis
Los Angeles Rams at Las Vegas Raiders: the v0.3 ensemble places Los Angeles Rams at 69%, using a 70% margin-aware Elo and 30% rolling-efficiency blend with saved strictly out-of-fold calibration. Both sides have 6 and 6 current-season games, respectively, with 2025 prior form. The model applies no explicit player-availability adjustment. This is a pregame statistical estimate, not a certainty or wagering recommendation.
Forecast
Model pick: Los Angeles Rams (69%). Signal: Moderate; model agreement and data quality, not wagering value.
Sources & Methodology
Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.