Away
Miami Dolphins
0-5
Home
New York Jets
2-4
Model Win Probability
Miami Dolphins · Away
50%
separation0%
New York Jets · Home
50%
- Elo component
- 49% MIA
- Efficiency component
- 56% MIA
- Feature coverage
- 100%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-10-20T20:24:22.518Z
- Model
- pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3
Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.
Team Efficiency Comparison
0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.
Blended Team Metrics
| MIA | Metric | NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| -0.065 | EPA / Play | -0.092 |
| 40.2% | Success Rate | 41.5% |
| -0.055 | Dropback EPA | -0.061 |
| -0.089 | Rush EPA | -0.156 |
| 12.8% | Explosive Play Rate | 10.2% |
| 39.9% | 3rd Down Conversion | 31.9% |
| 45.0% | Red Zone TD Rate | 33.3% |
| 0.101 | Def. EPA / Play Allowed | 0.070 |
Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.
Game Context
- Venue
- MetLife Stadium
- Kickoff
- Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET
- Roof
- outdoors
- Surface
- fieldturf
- Away rest
- 14 days
- Home rest
- 7 days
- Site
- New York Jets home game
Player Impact
Malik Willis
QB2026 Weeks 1–6; 5 games
- CMP/ATT
- 73/130
- Pass yds
- 849
- Pass TD
- 2
- INT
- 4
- Y/A
- 6.5
- Sacks
- 14
Ollie Gordon II
RB2026 Weeks 1–6; 4 games
- Carries
- 47
- Rush yds
- 236
- YPC
- 5
- Rush TD
- 3
- Targets
- 5
- Rec
- 5
De'Von Achane
RB2026 Weeks 1–6; 3 games; last played Week 3
- Carries
- 34
- Rush yds
- 127
- YPC
- 3.7
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 12
- Rec
- 7
Malik Washington
WR2026 Weeks 1–6; 5 games
- Targets
- 36
- Rec
- 23
- Rec yds
- 262
- YPR
- 11.4
- Rec TD
- 0
Kevin Coleman Jr.
WR2026 Weeks 1–6; 4 games
- Targets
- 17
- Rec
- 5
- Rec yds
- 36
- YPR
- 7.2
- Rec TD
- 1
Away · Miami Dolphins
Malik Willis
QB2026 Weeks 1–6; 5 games
- CMP/ATT
- 73/130
- Pass yds
- 849
- Pass TD
- 2
- INT
- 4
- Y/A
- 6.5
- Sacks
- 14
Ollie Gordon II
RB2026 Weeks 1–6; 4 games
- Carries
- 47
- Rush yds
- 236
- YPC
- 5
- Rush TD
- 3
- Targets
- 5
- Rec
- 5
De'Von Achane
RB2026 Weeks 1–6; 3 games; last played Week 3
- Carries
- 34
- Rush yds
- 127
- YPC
- 3.7
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 12
- Rec
- 7
Malik Washington
WR2026 Weeks 1–6; 5 games
- Targets
- 36
- Rec
- 23
- Rec yds
- 262
- YPR
- 11.4
- Rec TD
- 0
Kevin Coleman Jr.
WR2026 Weeks 1–6; 4 games
- Targets
- 17
- Rec
- 5
- Rec yds
- 36
- YPR
- 7.2
- Rec TD
- 1
Home · New York Jets
Geno Smith
QB2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- CMP/ATT
- 122/177
- Pass yds
- 1336
- Pass TD
- 7
- INT
- 1
- Y/A
- 7.5
- Sacks
- 19
Braelon Allen
RB2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- Carries
- 74
- Rush yds
- 314
- YPC
- 4.2
- Rush TD
- 2
- Targets
- 13
- Rec
- 9
Breece Hall
RB2026 Weeks 1–6; 3 games; last played Week 3
- Carries
- 51
- Rush yds
- 163
- YPC
- 3.2
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 10
- Rec
- 10
Garrett Wilson
WR2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- Targets
- 48
- Rec
- 35
- Rec yds
- 418
- YPR
- 11.9
- Rec TD
- 3
Adonai Mitchell
WR2026 Weeks 1–6; 2 games; last played Week 2
- Targets
- 15
- Rec
- 9
- Rec yds
- 123
- YPR
- 13.7
- Rec TD
- 0
Scoring by Quarter
Sample · 6 gamesAway · Miami Dolphins
Home · New York Jets
Latest News
- Miami Dolphins Discussion: Malik Willis After 5 Games Edition
Yahoo Sports NFL · 4h ago · MIA
- Dolphins release Patterson after Week 5 problems defending kickoffs
ESPN NFL · 5h ago · MIA
- Justin Tucker was among five kickers the Dolphins worked out
NBC Sports ProFootballTalk · 6h ago · MIA
- Miami Dolphins move on from Storm Duck
Yahoo Sports NFL · 8h ago · MIA
- Week 7 fantasy defense rankings: Top DST streamers, starts
Yahoo Sports NFL · 8h ago · MIA / NYJ
Analytical Angles
Passing profile · MIA
passingMiami Dolphins: 16/100 league percentile in blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 7.
Passing profile · NYJ
passingNew York Jets: 13/100 league percentile in blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 7.
Defensive profile · MIA / NYJ
efficiencyDefense EPA percentiles: Miami Dolphins 6/100; New York Jets 23/100. Lower EPA allowed rates better.
Availability watch
availabilityAvailability checked Tuesday, October 20. final designations remain subject to change. The forecast applies no separate injury, trade or lineup adjustment.
Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.
Keys to the Game
- Margin-aware Elo: Miami Dolphins 48.9%.
- Rolling efficiency: Miami Dolphins 55.5%.
- rushing: Miami Dolphins 48/100, New York Jets 19/100.
- situational: Miami Dolphins 27/100, New York Jets 2/100.
What Could Flip It
- passRush: New York Jets 35/100 versus Miami Dolphins 6/100.
- defense: New York Jets 23/100 versus Miami Dolphins 6/100.
- Miami Dolphins have 5 completed 2026 games; New York Jets have 6. Prior-season form is blended into efficiency.
- The model applies no explicit player-availability adjustment.
Model Analysis
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets: the v0.3 ensemble places Miami Dolphins at 50%, using a 70% margin-aware Elo and 30% rolling-efficiency blend with saved strictly out-of-fold calibration. Both sides have 5 and 6 current-season games, respectively, with 2025 prior form. The model applies no explicit player-availability adjustment. This is a pregame statistical estimate, not a certainty or wagering recommendation.
Forecast
Model pick: Miami Dolphins (50%). Signal: Unrated; model agreement and data quality, not wagering value.
Sources & Methodology
Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.