Away
New York Giants
3-2-1
Home
Houston Texans
2-4
Model Win Probability
New York Giants · Away
30%
separation40%
Houston Texans · Home
70%
- Elo component
- 27% NYG
- Efficiency component
- 29% NYG
- Feature coverage
- 100%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-10-20T20:24:22.518Z
- Model
- pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3
Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.
Team Efficiency Comparison
0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.
Blended Team Metrics
| NYG | Metric | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 0.014 | EPA / Play | 0.008 |
| 42.8% | Success Rate | 42.7% |
| 0.088 | Dropback EPA | 0.115 |
| -0.102 | Rush EPA | -0.195 |
| 11.6% | Explosive Play Rate | 11.5% |
| 46.7% | 3rd Down Conversion | 41.2% |
| 54.4% | Red Zone TD Rate | 53.9% |
| 0.070 | Def. EPA / Play Allowed | -0.079 |
Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.
Game Context
- Venue
- Reliant Stadium
- Kickoff
- Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET
- Surface
- astroturf
- Away rest
- 7 days
- Home rest
- 7 days
- Site
- Houston Texans home game
Player Impact
Jameis Winston
QB2026 Weeks 1–6; 5 games
- CMP/ATT
- 90/158
- Pass yds
- 957
- Pass TD
- 7
- INT
- 5
- Y/A
- 6.1
- Sacks
- 15
Cam Skattebo
RB2026 Weeks 1–6; 5 games; last played Week 5
- Carries
- 81
- Rush yds
- 294
- YPC
- 3.6
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 12
- Rec
- 10
Najee Harris
RB2026 Weeks 1–6; 5 games
- Carries
- 31
- Rush yds
- 99
- YPC
- 3.2
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 1
- Rec
- 1
Malik Nabers
WR2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- Targets
- 61
- Rec
- 41
- Rec yds
- 494
- YPR
- 12
- Rec TD
- 2
Malachi Fields
WR2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- Targets
- 25
- Rec
- 12
- Rec yds
- 165
- YPR
- 13.8
- Rec TD
- 1
Away · New York Giants
Jameis Winston
QB2026 Weeks 1–6; 5 games
- CMP/ATT
- 90/158
- Pass yds
- 957
- Pass TD
- 7
- INT
- 5
- Y/A
- 6.1
- Sacks
- 15
Cam Skattebo
RB2026 Weeks 1–6; 5 games; last played Week 5
- Carries
- 81
- Rush yds
- 294
- YPC
- 3.6
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 12
- Rec
- 10
Najee Harris
RB2026 Weeks 1–6; 5 games
- Carries
- 31
- Rush yds
- 99
- YPC
- 3.2
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 1
- Rec
- 1
Malik Nabers
WR2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- Targets
- 61
- Rec
- 41
- Rec yds
- 494
- YPR
- 12
- Rec TD
- 2
Malachi Fields
WR2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- Targets
- 25
- Rec
- 12
- Rec yds
- 165
- YPR
- 13.8
- Rec TD
- 1
Home · Houston Texans
C.J. Stroud
QB2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- CMP/ATT
- 143/219
- Pass yds
- 1714
- Pass TD
- 9
- INT
- 1
- Y/A
- 7.8
- Sacks
- 14
Woody Marks
RB2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- Carries
- 58
- Rush yds
- 205
- YPC
- 3.5
- Rush TD
- 2
- Targets
- 16
- Rec
- 13
David Montgomery
RB2026 Weeks 1–6; 5 games; last played Week 5
- Carries
- 52
- Rush yds
- 138
- YPC
- 2.7
- Rush TD
- 2
- Targets
- 7
- Rec
- 7
Xavier Hutchinson
WR2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- Targets
- 34
- Rec
- 18
- Rec yds
- 241
- YPR
- 13.4
- Rec TD
- 0
Nico Collins
WR2026 Weeks 1–6; 4 games
- Targets
- 30
- Rec
- 22
- Rec yds
- 323
- YPR
- 14.7
- Rec TD
- 3
Injuries & Availability
Home · Houston Texans
Tank DellWR
UNKNOWNCoach said he would play Sunday; official final game designation pending.
Checked Tue, Oct 20, 2026; game designation pending unless IR/PUP.
Scoring by Quarter
Sample · 6 gamesAway · New York Giants
Home · Houston Texans
Latest News
- Giants release veteran RB Harris days after 2-yard start
ESPN NFL · 1h ago · NO / NYG
- Giants sign LB Trace Ford to active roster
NBC Sports ProFootballTalk · 6h ago · NYG
- Former Giants bust Evan Neal cut from Raiders practice squad
Yahoo Sports NFL · 7h ago · LV / NYG
- NY Giants sign OLB Trace Ford to the 53-man roster
Yahoo Sports NFL · 8h ago · NYG
- The Hot Read: C.J. Stroud refuses to stay buried
Yahoo Sports NFL · 9h ago · HOU
Analytical Angles
Passing profile · NYG
passingNew York Giants: 55/100 league percentile in blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 7.
Passing profile · HOU
passingHouston Texans: 65/100 league percentile in blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 7.
Defensive profile · NYG / HOU
efficiencyDefense EPA percentiles: New York Giants 19/100; Houston Texans 94/100. Lower EPA allowed rates better.
Availability watch
availabilityAvailability checked Tuesday, October 20. 1 named item in game notes; final designations remain subject to change. The forecast applies no separate injury, trade or lineup adjustment.
Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.
Keys to the Game
- Margin-aware Elo: New York Giants 26.9%.
- Rolling efficiency: New York Giants 29.4%.
- defense: Houston Texans 94/100, New York Giants 19/100.
- passRush: Houston Texans 87/100, New York Giants 23/100.
What Could Flip It
- rushing: New York Giants 42/100 versus Houston Texans 3/100.
- situational: New York Giants 58/100 versus Houston Texans 47/100.
- New York Giants have 6 completed 2026 games; Houston Texans have 6. Prior-season form is blended into efficiency.
- The model applies no explicit player-availability adjustment.
Model Analysis
New York Giants at Houston Texans: the v0.3 ensemble places Houston Texans at 70%, using a 70% margin-aware Elo and 30% rolling-efficiency blend with saved strictly out-of-fold calibration. Both sides have 6 and 6 current-season games, respectively, with 2025 prior form. The model applies no explicit player-availability adjustment. This is a pregame statistical estimate, not a certainty or wagering recommendation.
Forecast
Model pick: Houston Texans (70%). Signal: Moderate; model agreement and data quality, not wagering value.
Sources & Methodology
Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.