Away
Pittsburgh Steelers
4-2
Home
New Orleans Saints
2-4
Model Win Probability
Pittsburgh Steelers · Away
64%
separation28%
New Orleans Saints · Home
36%
- Elo component
- 70% PIT
- Efficiency component
- 60% PIT
- Feature coverage
- 100%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-10-20T20:24:22.518Z
- Model
- pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3
Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.
Team Efficiency Comparison
0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.
Blended Team Metrics
| PIT | Metric | NO |
|---|---|---|
| -0.020 | EPA / Play | -0.071 |
| 42.7% | Success Rate | 41.8% |
| -0.018 | Dropback EPA | -0.018 |
| -0.008 | Rush EPA | -0.160 |
| 11.4% | Explosive Play Rate | 10.0% |
| 37.7% | 3rd Down Conversion | 42.7% |
| 51.4% | Red Zone TD Rate | 83.6% |
| -0.005 | Def. EPA / Play Allowed | 0.009 |
Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.
Game Context
- Venue
- Stade de France
- Kickoff
- Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET
- Roof
- dome
- Surface
- sportturf
- Away rest
- 7 days
- Home rest
- 7 days
- Site
- Neutral site
Player Impact
Aaron Rodgers
QB2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- CMP/ATT
- 143/233
- Pass yds
- 1487
- Pass TD
- 12
- INT
- 5
- Y/A
- 6.4
- Sacks
- 19
Jaylen Warren
RB2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- Carries
- 84
- Rush yds
- 460
- YPC
- 5.5
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 30
- Rec
- 21
Rico Dowdle
RB2026 Weeks 1–6; 3 games
- Carries
- 22
- Rush yds
- 77
- YPC
- 3.5
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 11
- Rec
- 7
DK Metcalf
WR2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- Targets
- 52
- Rec
- 30
- Rec yds
- 318
- YPR
- 10.6
- Rec TD
- 1
Germie Bernard
WR2026 Weeks 1–6; 5 games
- Targets
- 32
- Rec
- 24
- Rec yds
- 227
- YPR
- 9.5
- Rec TD
- 1
Away · Pittsburgh Steelers
Aaron Rodgers
QB2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- CMP/ATT
- 143/233
- Pass yds
- 1487
- Pass TD
- 12
- INT
- 5
- Y/A
- 6.4
- Sacks
- 19
Jaylen Warren
RB2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- Carries
- 84
- Rush yds
- 460
- YPC
- 5.5
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 30
- Rec
- 21
Rico Dowdle
RB2026 Weeks 1–6; 3 games
- Carries
- 22
- Rush yds
- 77
- YPC
- 3.5
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 11
- Rec
- 7
DK Metcalf
WR2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- Targets
- 52
- Rec
- 30
- Rec yds
- 318
- YPR
- 10.6
- Rec TD
- 1
Germie Bernard
WR2026 Weeks 1–6; 5 games
- Targets
- 32
- Rec
- 24
- Rec yds
- 227
- YPR
- 9.5
- Rec TD
- 1
Home · New Orleans Saints
Tyler Shough
QB2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- CMP/ATT
- 153/235
- Pass yds
- 1443
- Pass TD
- 12
- INT
- 5
- Y/A
- 6.1
- Sacks
- 13
Kendre Miller
RB2026 Weeks 1–6; 5 games
- Carries
- 49
- Rush yds
- 153
- YPC
- 3.1
- Rush TD
- 2
- Targets
- 8
- Rec
- 6
Alvin Kamara
RB2026 Weeks 1–6; 5 games
- Carries
- 35
- Rush yds
- 120
- YPC
- 3.4
- Rush TD
- 2
- Targets
- 20
- Rec
- 15
Chris Olave
WR2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- Targets
- 61
- Rec
- 43
- Rec yds
- 580
- YPR
- 13.5
- Rec TD
- 2
Devaughn Vele
WR2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- Targets
- 43
- Rec
- 28
- Rec yds
- 294
- YPR
- 10.5
- Rec TD
- 2
Injuries & Availability
Home · New Orleans Saints
Jordyn TysonWR
IRHamstring; traveled with team to Paris but remains on injured reserve.
Checked Tue, Oct 20, 2026; game designation pending unless IR/PUP.
Scoring by Quarter
Sample · 6 gamesAway · Pittsburgh Steelers
Home · New Orleans Saints
Latest News
- Giants release veteran RB Harris days after 2-yard start
ESPN NFL · 1h ago · NO / NYG
- Steelers bring back veteran Valdes-Scantling amid receiver injury woes
ESPN NFL · 1h ago · PIT
- The best soccer/NFL crossover jerseys as PSG unveil kit for Steelers vs. Saints in Paris
ESPN NFL · 2h ago · NO / PIT
- NFL will have heightened security for game in Paris after recent civil unrest
NBC Sports ProFootballTalk · 3h ago · NO / PIT
- NFL will have heightened security for game in Paris after recent civil unrest
Yahoo Sports NFL · 3h ago · NO / PIT
Analytical Angles
Passing profile · PIT
passingPittsburgh Steelers: 19/100 league percentile in blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 7.
Passing profile · NO
passingNew Orleans Saints: 23/100 league percentile in blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 7.
Defensive profile · PIT / NO
efficiencyDefense EPA percentiles: Pittsburgh Steelers 61/100; New Orleans Saints 45/100. Lower EPA allowed rates better.
Availability watch
availabilityAvailability checked Tuesday, October 20. 1 named item in game notes; final designations remain subject to change. The forecast applies no separate injury, trade or lineup adjustment.
Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.
Keys to the Game
- Margin-aware Elo: Pittsburgh Steelers 69.8%.
- Rolling efficiency: Pittsburgh Steelers 59.7%.
- rushing: Pittsburgh Steelers 90/100, New Orleans Saints 16/100.
- offense: Pittsburgh Steelers 42/100, New Orleans Saints 19/100.
What Could Flip It
- situational: New Orleans Saints 81/100 versus Pittsburgh Steelers 29/100.
- passing: New Orleans Saints 23/100 versus Pittsburgh Steelers 19/100.
- Pittsburgh Steelers have 6 completed 2026 games; New Orleans Saints have 6. Prior-season form is blended into efficiency.
- The model applies no explicit player-availability adjustment.
Model Analysis
Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints: the v0.3 ensemble places Pittsburgh Steelers at 64%, using a 70% margin-aware Elo and 30% rolling-efficiency blend with saved strictly out-of-fold calibration. Both sides have 6 and 6 current-season games, respectively, with 2025 prior form. The model applies no explicit player-availability adjustment. This is a pregame statistical estimate, not a certainty or wagering recommendation.
Forecast
Model pick: Pittsburgh Steelers (64%). Signal: Lean; model agreement and data quality, not wagering value.
Sources & Methodology
Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.