Away
San Francisco 49ers
6-0
Home
Atlanta Falcons
2-4
Model Win Probability
San Francisco 49ers · Away
65%
separation30%
Atlanta Falcons · Home
35%
- Elo component
- 72% SF
- Efficiency component
- 59% SF
- Feature coverage
- 100%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-10-20T20:24:22.518Z
- Model
- pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3
Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.
Team Efficiency Comparison
0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.
Blended Team Metrics
| SF | Metric | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 0.112 | EPA / Play | -0.029 |
| 49.4% | Success Rate | 44.2% |
| 0.238 | Dropback EPA | -0.008 |
| -0.056 | Rush EPA | -0.067 |
| 12.7% | Explosive Play Rate | 12.8% |
| 51.2% | 3rd Down Conversion | 39.5% |
| 84.7% | Red Zone TD Rate | 73.3% |
| 0.005 | Def. EPA / Play Allowed | -0.011 |
Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.
Game Context
- Venue
- Mercedes-Benz Stadium
- Kickoff
- Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET
- Surface
- fieldturf
- Away rest
- 6 days
- Home rest
- 7 days
- Site
- Atlanta Falcons home game
Player Impact
Brock Purdy
QB2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- CMP/ATT
- 119/171
- Pass yds
- 1460
- Pass TD
- 14
- INT
- 2
- Y/A
- 8.5
- Sacks
- 5
Christian McCaffrey
RB2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- Carries
- 77
- Rush yds
- 350
- YPC
- 4.5
- Rush TD
- 7
- Targets
- 35
- Rec
- 28
Kaelon Black
RB2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- Carries
- 45
- Rush yds
- 170
- YPC
- 3.8
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 3
- Rec
- 2
Mike Evans
WR2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- Targets
- 39
- Rec
- 27
- Rec yds
- 420
- YPR
- 15.6
- Rec TD
- 3
Deebo Samuel Sr.
WR2026 Weeks 1–6; 5 games; last played Week 5
- Targets
- 20
- Rec
- 16
- Rec yds
- 206
- YPR
- 12.9
- Rec TD
- 3
Away · San Francisco 49ers
Brock Purdy
QB2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- CMP/ATT
- 119/171
- Pass yds
- 1460
- Pass TD
- 14
- INT
- 2
- Y/A
- 8.5
- Sacks
- 5
Christian McCaffrey
RB2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- Carries
- 77
- Rush yds
- 350
- YPC
- 4.5
- Rush TD
- 7
- Targets
- 35
- Rec
- 28
Kaelon Black
RB2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- Carries
- 45
- Rush yds
- 170
- YPC
- 3.8
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 3
- Rec
- 2
Mike Evans
WR2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- Targets
- 39
- Rec
- 27
- Rec yds
- 420
- YPR
- 15.6
- Rec TD
- 3
Deebo Samuel Sr.
WR2026 Weeks 1–6; 5 games; last played Week 5
- Targets
- 20
- Rec
- 16
- Rec yds
- 206
- YPR
- 12.9
- Rec TD
- 3
Home · Atlanta Falcons
Michael Penix Jr.
QB2026 Weeks 1–6; 4 games
- CMP/ATT
- 71/110
- Pass yds
- 944
- Pass TD
- 6
- INT
- 1
- Y/A
- 8.6
- Sacks
- 9
Bijan Robinson
RB2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- Carries
- 111
- Rush yds
- 641
- YPC
- 5.8
- Rush TD
- 4
- Targets
- 27
- Rec
- 20
Brian Robinson
RB2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- Carries
- 53
- Rush yds
- 211
- YPC
- 4
- Rush TD
- 4
- Targets
- 6
- Rec
- 5
Drake London
WR2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- Targets
- 46
- Rec
- 31
- Rec yds
- 550
- YPR
- 17.7
- Rec TD
- 0
Jahan Dotson
WR2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- Targets
- 22
- Rec
- 11
- Rec yds
- 236
- YPR
- 21.5
- Rec TD
- 2
Injuries & Availability
Away · San Francisco 49ers
Mike EvansWR
UNKNOWNAchilles soreness after Week 6; coach is hopeful he can play Week 7.
Checked Tue, Oct 20, 2026; game designation pending unless IR/PUP.
Scoring by Quarter
Sample · 6 gamesAway · San Francisco 49ers
Home · Atlanta Falcons
Latest News
- Dan Quinn says he talked to Jayden Daniels about ill-advised fourth-down throwaway vs. 49ers, wants QB to take his 'shot'
Yahoo Sports NFL · 4h ago · SF
- Evans unable to finish 49ers' victory, exits with Achilles soreness
ESPN NFL · 5h ago · SF
- 49ers release DL Naquan Jones
NBC Sports ProFootballTalk · 6h ago · SF
- 49ers release DL Naquan Jones
Yahoo Sports NFL · 6h ago · SF
- Rams’ Australia travel gamble puts NFL’s hands-off approach in spotlight
Yahoo Sports NFL · 6h ago · LA / SF
Analytical Angles
Passing profile · SF
passingSan Francisco 49ers: 97/100 league percentile in blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 7.
Passing profile · ATL
passingAtlanta Falcons: 29/100 league percentile in blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 7.
Defensive profile · SF / ATL
efficiencyDefense EPA percentiles: San Francisco 49ers 48/100; Atlanta Falcons 65/100. Lower EPA allowed rates better.
Availability watch
availabilityAvailability checked Tuesday, October 20. 1 named item in game notes; final designations remain subject to change. The forecast applies no separate injury, trade or lineup adjustment.
Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.
Keys to the Game
- Margin-aware Elo: San Francisco 49ers 71.5%.
- Rolling efficiency: San Francisco 49ers 59.1%.
- passing: San Francisco 49ers 97/100, Atlanta Falcons 29/100.
- offense: San Francisco 49ers 90/100, Atlanta Falcons 32/100.
What Could Flip It
- passRush: Atlanta Falcons 81/100 versus San Francisco 49ers 10/100.
- defense: Atlanta Falcons 65/100 versus San Francisco 49ers 48/100.
- San Francisco 49ers have 6 completed 2026 games; Atlanta Falcons have 6. Prior-season form is blended into efficiency.
- The model applies no explicit player-availability adjustment.
Model Analysis
San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons: the v0.3 ensemble places San Francisco 49ers at 65%, using a 70% margin-aware Elo and 30% rolling-efficiency blend with saved strictly out-of-fold calibration. Both sides have 6 and 6 current-season games, respectively, with 2025 prior form. The model applies no explicit player-availability adjustment. This is a pregame statistical estimate, not a certainty or wagering recommendation.
Forecast
Model pick: San Francisco 49ers (65%). Signal: Moderate; model agreement and data quality, not wagering value.
Sources & Methodology
Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.