Away
Cleveland Browns
5-2
Home
Pittsburgh Steelers
5-2
Model Win Probability
Cleveland Browns · Away
32%
separation36%
Pittsburgh Steelers · Home
68%
- Elo component
- 30% CLE
- Efficiency component
- 29% CLE
- Feature coverage
- 100%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-10-27T22:01:46.102572Z
- Model
- pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3
Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.
Team Efficiency Comparison
0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.
Blended Team Metrics
| CLE | Metric | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| -0.118 | EPA / Play | 0.003 |
| 38.5% | Success Rate | 43.3% |
| -0.093 | Dropback EPA | 0.006 |
| -0.156 | Rush EPA | 0.010 |
| 9.9% | Explosive Play Rate | 11.3% |
| 34.6% | 3rd Down Conversion | 42.1% |
| 48.8% | Red Zone TD Rate | 54.1% |
| -0.058 | Def. EPA / Play Allowed | -0.002 |
Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.
Game Context
- Venue
- Acrisure Stadium
- Kickoff
- Sun, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- Roof
- outdoors
- Surface
- grass
- Away rest
- 7 days
- Home rest
- 7 days
- Site
- Pittsburgh Steelers home game
Player Impact
Deshaun Watson
QB2026 Weeks 1–7; 7 games
- CMP/ATT
- 136/210
- Pass yds
- 1482
- Pass TD
- 7
- INT
- 3
- Y/A
- 7.1
- Sacks
- 25
Quinshon Judkins
RB2026 Weeks 1–7; 6 games
- Carries
- 90
- Rush yds
- 317
- YPC
- 3.5
- Rush TD
- 3
- Targets
- 21
- Rec
- 19
Jaleel McLaughlin
RB2026 Weeks 2–7; 5 games
- Carries
- 11
- Rush yds
- 72
- YPC
- 6.5
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 6
- Rec
- 4
KC Concepcion
WR2026 Weeks 1–7; 7 games
- Targets
- 45
- Rec
- 30
- Rec yds
- 315
- YPR
- 10.5
- Rec TD
- 0
Denzel Boston
WR2026 Weeks 1–7; 7 games
- Targets
- 42
- Rec
- 20
- Rec yds
- 372
- YPR
- 18.6
- Rec TD
- 3
Away · Cleveland Browns
Deshaun Watson
QB2026 Weeks 1–7; 7 games
- CMP/ATT
- 136/210
- Pass yds
- 1482
- Pass TD
- 7
- INT
- 3
- Y/A
- 7.1
- Sacks
- 25
Quinshon Judkins
RB2026 Weeks 1–7; 6 games
- Carries
- 90
- Rush yds
- 317
- YPC
- 3.5
- Rush TD
- 3
- Targets
- 21
- Rec
- 19
Jaleel McLaughlin
RB2026 Weeks 2–7; 5 games
- Carries
- 11
- Rush yds
- 72
- YPC
- 6.5
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 6
- Rec
- 4
KC Concepcion
WR2026 Weeks 1–7; 7 games
- Targets
- 45
- Rec
- 30
- Rec yds
- 315
- YPR
- 10.5
- Rec TD
- 0
Denzel Boston
WR2026 Weeks 1–7; 7 games
- Targets
- 42
- Rec
- 20
- Rec yds
- 372
- YPR
- 18.6
- Rec TD
- 3
Home · Pittsburgh Steelers
Aaron Rodgers
QB2026 Weeks 1–7; 7 games
- CMP/ATT
- 162/263
- Pass yds
- 1699
- Pass TD
- 13
- INT
- 5
- Y/A
- 6.5
- Sacks
- 22
Jaylen Warren
RB2026 Weeks 1–7; 7 games
- Carries
- 102
- Rush yds
- 561
- YPC
- 5.5
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 34
- Rec
- 24
Rico Dowdle
RB2026 Weeks 1–7; 4 games
- Carries
- 31
- Rush yds
- 118
- YPC
- 3.8
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 17
- Rec
- 13
DK Metcalf
WR2026 Weeks 1–7; 7 games
- Targets
- 58
- Rec
- 32
- Rec yds
- 374
- YPR
- 11.7
- Rec TD
- 1
Germie Bernard
WR2026 Weeks 2–7; 6 games
- Targets
- 37
- Rec
- 27
- Rec yds
- 254
- YPR
- 9.4
- Rec TD
- 1
Injuries & Availability
Away · Cleveland Browns
Dillon GabrielQB
ActivatedActivated from injured reserve; starter status unconfirmed
Checked Tue, Oct 27, 2026; final game designation pending unless IR/suspended/traded.
Scoring by Quarter
Sample · 7 gamesAway · Cleveland Browns
Home · Pittsburgh Steelers
Latest News
- Danielle Hunter out, Will Anderson Jr. questionable for Texans-Browns
NBC Sports ProFootballTalk · 3h ago · CLE / HOU
- The Steelers can’t stop talking about this practice squad WR
Yahoo Sports NFL · 3h ago · PIT
- Steelers DL Derrick Harmon questionable for Bengals matchup
Yahoo Sports NFL · 4h ago · CIN / PIT
- Steelers reporter doesn’t expect Derrick Harmon to return against Bengals
Yahoo Sports NFL · 4h ago · CIN / PIT
- It's a battle for the AFC North: Steelers at Bengals Week 10 primer
ESPN NFL · 6h ago · CIN / PIT
Analytical Angles
Passing profile · CLE
passingCleveland Browns: 6/100 league percentile in blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 8.
Passing profile · PIT
passingPittsburgh Steelers: 31/100 league percentile in blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 8.
Defensive profile · CLE / PIT
efficiencyDefense EPA percentiles: Cleveland Browns 84/100; Pittsburgh Steelers 62/100. Lower EPA allowed rates are better.
Availability watch
availabilityAvailability checked Tuesday, October 27. 1 named items in game notes; final designations may change. The forecast applies no separate injury, trade or lineup adjustment.
Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.
Keys to the Game
- Margin-aware Elo: Cleveland Browns 30.3%.
- Rolling efficiency: Cleveland Browns 29.4%.
- defense: Cleveland Browns 84/100, Pittsburgh Steelers 62/100.
- passRush: Cleveland Browns 94/100, Pittsburgh Steelers 69/100.
What Could Flip It
- offense: Cleveland Browns 6/100 versus Pittsburgh Steelers 47/100.
- passing: Cleveland Browns 6/100 versus Pittsburgh Steelers 31/100.
- Cleveland Browns have 7 completed 2026 games; Pittsburgh Steelers have 7. Prior-season form is blended into efficiency.
- Final game status and starting lineups remain subject to change. No separate injury or trade adjustment is applied to the forecast.
Model Analysis
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers: the v0.3 ensemble places Pittsburgh Steelers at 68%, using a 70% margin-aware Elo and 30% rolling-efficiency blend with strictly out-of-fold calibration. Both sides have 7 and 7 completed current-season games, respectively, with 2025 prior form. This model does not adjust separately for injuries, trades or lineup changes. The forecast is a pregame statistical estimate, not certainty or a wagering recommendation.
Forecast
Model pick: Pittsburgh Steelers (68%). Signal: Unrated; model agreement and data quality, not wagering value.
Sources & Methodology
Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.