Away
New England Patriots
4-3
Home
Miami Dolphins
1-5
Model Win Probability
New England Patriots · Away
69%
separation38%
Miami Dolphins · Home
31%
- Elo component
- 71% NE
- Efficiency component
- 75% NE
- Feature coverage
- 100%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-10-27T22:01:46.103448Z
- Model
- pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3
Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.
Team Efficiency Comparison
0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.
Blended Team Metrics
| NE | Metric | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 0.112 | EPA / Play | -0.040 |
| 46.8% | Success Rate | 41.0% |
| 0.275 | Dropback EPA | -0.005 |
| -0.140 | Rush EPA | -0.084 |
| 14.6% | Explosive Play Rate | 12.6% |
| 43.3% | 3rd Down Conversion | 36.8% |
| 54.4% | Red Zone TD Rate | 57.0% |
| -0.015 | Def. EPA / Play Allowed | 0.111 |
Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.
Game Context
- Venue
- Hard Rock Stadium
- Kickoff
- Sun, Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET
- Roof
- outdoors
- Surface
- grass
- Away rest
- 10 days
- Home rest
- 7 days
- Site
- Miami Dolphins home game
Player Impact
Drake Maye
QB2026 Weeks 1–7; 7 games
- CMP/ATT
- 141/214
- Pass yds
- 1784
- Pass TD
- 13
- INT
- 8
- Y/A
- 8.3
- Sacks
- 13
Rhamondre Stevenson
RB2026 Weeks 1–7; 7 games
- Carries
- 77
- Rush yds
- 285
- YPC
- 3.7
- Rush TD
- 2
- Targets
- 24
- Rec
- 20
TreVeyon Henderson
RB2026 Weeks 2–7; 6 games
- Carries
- 52
- Rush yds
- 203
- YPC
- 3.9
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 7
- Rec
- 5
DeMario Douglas
WR2026 Weeks 1–7; 7 games
- Targets
- 34
- Rec
- 23
- Rec yds
- 256
- YPR
- 11.1
- Rec TD
- 3
Romeo Doubs
WR2026 Weeks 1–7; 6 games; last played Week 6
- Targets
- 24
- Rec
- 14
- Rec yds
- 261
- YPR
- 18.6
- Rec TD
- 3
Away · New England Patriots
Drake Maye
QB2026 Weeks 1–7; 7 games
- CMP/ATT
- 141/214
- Pass yds
- 1784
- Pass TD
- 13
- INT
- 8
- Y/A
- 8.3
- Sacks
- 13
Rhamondre Stevenson
RB2026 Weeks 1–7; 7 games
- Carries
- 77
- Rush yds
- 285
- YPC
- 3.7
- Rush TD
- 2
- Targets
- 24
- Rec
- 20
TreVeyon Henderson
RB2026 Weeks 2–7; 6 games
- Carries
- 52
- Rush yds
- 203
- YPC
- 3.9
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 7
- Rec
- 5
DeMario Douglas
WR2026 Weeks 1–7; 7 games
- Targets
- 34
- Rec
- 23
- Rec yds
- 256
- YPR
- 11.1
- Rec TD
- 3
Romeo Doubs
WR2026 Weeks 1–7; 6 games; last played Week 6
- Targets
- 24
- Rec
- 14
- Rec yds
- 261
- YPR
- 18.6
- Rec TD
- 3
Home · Miami Dolphins
Malik Willis
QB2026 Weeks 1–7; 6 games
- CMP/ATT
- 87/151
- Pass yds
- 1057
- Pass TD
- 4
- INT
- 4
- Y/A
- 7
- Sacks
- 16
Ollie Gordon II
RB2026 Weeks 2–7; 5 games
- Carries
- 72
- Rush yds
- 339
- YPC
- 4.7
- Rush TD
- 4
- Targets
- 8
- Rec
- 6
De'Von Achane
RB2026 Weeks 1–7; 3 games; last played Week 3
- Carries
- 34
- Rush yds
- 127
- YPC
- 3.7
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 12
- Rec
- 7
Malik Washington
WR2026 Weeks 1–7; 6 games
- Targets
- 39
- Rec
- 26
- Rec yds
- 289
- YPR
- 11.1
- Rec TD
- 0
Chris Bell
WR2026 Weeks 1–7; 6 games
- Targets
- 19
- Rec
- 8
- Rec yds
- 117
- YPR
- 14.6
- Rec TD
- 0
Scoring by Quarter
Sample · 7 gamesAway · New England Patriots
Home · Miami Dolphins
Latest News
- TreVeyon Henderson doesn’t travel with Patriots to Germany after ‘unexplainable medical emergency’
Yahoo Sports NFL · 5h ago · NE
- A.J. Brown, Rhamondre Stevenson among Patriots questionable for Sunday vs. Lions
NBC Sports ProFootballTalk · 7h ago · DET / NE
- Lions list Amon-Ra St. Brown as questionable vs. Patriots in Germany
NBC Sports ProFootballTalk · 8h ago · DET / NE
- NFL injury tracker Week 10: Latest news, fantasy implications as Patriots' A.J. Brown (ankle/knee) and Chiefs' Kenneth Walker III (groin) questionable; Deshaun Watson to start for Browns
Yahoo Sports NFL · 4d ago · CLE / KC / NE
- Patriots opponent preview: Are the Dolphins trending up?
Yahoo Sports NFL · 16d ago · MIA / NE
Analytical Angles
Passing profile · NE
passingNew England Patriots: 100/100 league percentile in blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 8.
Passing profile · MIA
passingMiami Dolphins: 19/100 league percentile in blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 8.
Defensive profile · NE / MIA
efficiencyDefense EPA percentiles: New England Patriots 69/100; Miami Dolphins 9/100. Lower EPA allowed rates are better.
Availability watch
availabilityAvailability checked Tuesday, October 27. 0 named items in game notes; final designations may change. The forecast applies no separate injury, trade or lineup adjustment.
Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.
Keys to the Game
- Margin-aware Elo: New England Patriots 71.0%.
- Rolling efficiency: New England Patriots 74.8%.
- defense: New England Patriots 69/100, Miami Dolphins 9/100.
- passRush: New England Patriots 59/100, Miami Dolphins 12/100.
What Could Flip It
- offense: New England Patriots 91/100 versus Miami Dolphins 25/100.
- passing: New England Patriots 100/100 versus Miami Dolphins 19/100.
- New England Patriots have 7 completed 2026 games; Miami Dolphins have 6. Prior-season form is blended into efficiency.
- Final game status and starting lineups remain subject to change. No separate injury or trade adjustment is applied to the forecast.
Model Analysis
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins: the v0.3 ensemble places New England Patriots at 69%, using a 70% margin-aware Elo and 30% rolling-efficiency blend with strictly out-of-fold calibration. Both sides have 7 and 6 completed current-season games, respectively, with 2025 prior form. This model does not adjust separately for injuries, trades or lineup changes. The forecast is a pregame statistical estimate, not certainty or a wagering recommendation.
Forecast
Model pick: New England Patriots (69%). Signal: Moderate; model agreement and data quality, not wagering value.
Sources & Methodology
Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.