The Middleweight division takes center stage at Noche UFC: Silva vs Delgado as Djorden Santos meets Yousri Belgaroui at the Desert Diamond Arena in Glendale. This matchup features two competitors with distinct physical profiles and professional histories. With an event date of September 12, 2026, the analytics model suggests a competitive encounter where phase control and sustainable output will dictate the winner. Djorden Santos enters with a record of 11-3-0, while Yousri Belgaroui brings a record of 9-3-0 into the cage.
Striking Volume and Accuracy Dynamics
The striking exchanges will be defined by the volume differential between these two middleweights. Djorden Santos holds a strikes landed per minute edge of 6.64 compared to the 6.1 produced by Yousri Belgaroui. However, Belgaroui operates with a significant reach of 79 inches, providing a physical advantage over the 75.5 reach of Santos. While Santos lands more frequently, he also absorbs 6.35 strikes per minute, which is considerably higher than the 2.17 strikes absorbed per minute by Belgaroui. The defensive striking percentages further highlight this gap, as Belgaroui maintains a striking defense of 64 percent while Santos sits at 49 percent. Santos focuses heavily on the upper tier, with a significant strike head percentage of 83, whereas Belgaroui utilizes a more varied attack featuring a significant strike body percentage of 24 and a significant strike leg percentage of 15.
Grappling Control and Takedown Defense
In the wrestling and grappling department, the statistical profile favors Djorden Santos as the more resilient defensive fighter. Santos boasts a takedown defense of 85 percent, which serves as a primary key advantage in this matchup. This compares favorably to the 67 percent takedown defense recorded for Yousri Belgaroui. While both fighters currently show a submission average of 0 in official UFC data, Santos has a history of finishing fights on the ground with 4 wins by submission. Belgaroui, categorized as a Striker, has yet to record a submission victory in his professional record. The ability of Santos to dictate where the fight takes place is supported by his wrestling rating of 62, slightly higher than the 59 attributed to Belgaroui. If the fight hits the canvas, Santos has the more established statistical path to success given his prior submission results.
Pace and Endurance Over Three Rounds
Conditioning and fight duration will play a critical role at the Desert Diamond Arena. Djorden Santos carries an average fight time of 14:48, suggesting he is well-accustomed to competing deep into the final round. Yousri Belgaroui has a slightly lower average fight time of 13:02. Both fighters share an identical cardio rating of 69, indicating that neither man holds a distinct metabolic advantage over the other. Santos has proven his ability to win via the scorecards with 4 wins by decision, whereas Belgaroui has not recorded a decision victory, relying instead on his 8 wins by knockout to end fights early. The model notes that Santos maintains a high-activity pace throughout his longer average fight time, which may force the 33-year-old Belgaroui to manage his energy carefully against the 29-year-old Santos.
Impact and Durability Metrics
The potential for a sudden stoppage is present for both men, though they achieve it through different means. Djorden Santos possesses a knockdown average of 0.51, nearly double the 0.29 knockdown average of Yousri Belgaroui. Despite this, Belgaroui has a higher chin durability rating of 74 compared to the 66 of Santos. This creates a compelling dynamic where Santos lands more impactful shots but may be facing a more resilient target. Santos has a finish rate percentage of 64, supported by 3 wins by knockout and 4 wins by submission. Belgaroui relies almost exclusively on his power, with 8 wins by knockout comprising the vast majority of his success. The model warns that one high-impact exchange can override the statistical baseline, especially given that Belgaroui can outperform the model by forcing a different fight phase than the one projected.
Analytical Model Projections
The analytical forecast for this middleweight bout centers on the repeatability of each fighter's offensive output. The model produces a 51 percent win probability for Djorden Santos, identifying him as the fighter with the more sustainable route to victory. This lean is primarily driven by his superior takedown defense of 85 percent and his higher strikes landed per minute. However, the model notes that confidence is reduced due to limited samples where official UFC rates are unavailable. Yousri Belgaroui remains a live threat, particularly if he can utilize his height of 198 cm and reach of 79 to keep Santos at the end of his strikes. The model views this as a matchup where Santos has the statistical edge in volume and defense, but Belgaroui retains a credible path if he can force a striking-only affair.
Model verdict
The model identifies Djorden Santos as the side with a 51 percent win probability, citing his superior strikes landed per minute of 6.64 and his elite takedown defense of 85. While Yousri Belgaroui possesses a significant reach advantage and a higher striking defense of 64 percent, the model favors the more varied finish history and higher knockdown average of 0.51 belonging to Santos. This is a narrow projection where the sustainable offense of Santos is expected to test the defensive shell of Belgaroui over the 14:48 average fight time.
Frequently asked questions
- What are the primary statistical advantages for Djorden Santos?
- Djorden Santos holds a key advantage in volume with 6.64 strikes landed per minute compared to 6.1 for his opponent. Additionally, his takedown defense is significantly higher at 85 percent, providing him with better tools to dictate the phase of the fight.
- How does Yousri Belgaroui's physical profile impact the matchup?
- Yousri Belgaroui stands 198 cm tall and possesses a 79 inch reach, giving him a clear size advantage. He uses this to maintain a striking defense of 64 percent and absorbs only 2.17 strikes per minute, the lowest rate in the matchup.
- What are the most likely methods of victory based on their records?
- Djorden Santos is a versatile finisher with 3 wins by knockout and 4 wins by submission. In contrast, Yousri Belgaroui is a specialist who has earned 8 wins by knockout, indicating his primary path to victory is through his striking power.
Informational analysis generated from public statistics and screened by automated quality checks. Not wagering advice.
Standing94%
Clinch5%
Ground1%