Cody Garbrandt vs Adrian Yanez — UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2

← UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2Cody GarbrandtAdrian Yanez

Cody Garbrandt vs Adrian Yanez — Bantamweight — was scheduled for Saturday, July 11, 2026 at UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2 in T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas. Official result not yet recorded. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

slot.Prelim · BantamweightID · 30772BB0-3BAC-4E16-BB92-B1DAE45DAF3B

Rank Bantamweight · Bantamweight

Cody Garbrandt

"No Love"

15-7-0 · Boxing / Wrestling

Rank Bantamweight · Bantamweight

Adrian Yanez

17-6-1 · Boxing / BJJ

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Garbrandt

38%

Edge24%

Yanez

62%

Skill Comparison

Striking

Wrestling

Cardio

Takedown Defense

Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

GarbrandtMetricYanez

5'7"Height5'7"

65.5"Reach70"

34Age32

OrthodoxStanceOrthodox

73%Finish Rate76%

Career Records

GarbrandtMetricYanez

10Wins by KO/TKO6

0Wins by Submission0

2.79Sig. Strikes / Min5.96

3.66Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min5.24

40%Striking Accuracy41%

58%Striking Defense56%

0.85Takedowns / 15 min0

22%Takedown Accuracy0%

81%Takedown Defense75%

0Submissions / 15 min0

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Yanez

Key Advantages

Yanez holds a significant 4.5-inch reach advantage
Yanez lands at a much higher volume (5.96 SLpM vs. Garbrandt's 2.79)
Garbrandt's 81% takedown defense is historically high for the division
Garbrandt possesses superior NCAA wrestling credentials for a potential grappling pivot

Potential Concerns

Garbrandt's 4 career KO losses suggest a highly compromised chin against power punchers
Yanez absorbs 5.24 strikes per minute, indicating defensive liabilities in pocket exchanges
Garbrandt's low strike accuracy (40%) may lead to him falling behind on scorecards

AI Analysis

A battle of elite boxing distance management vs. fading veteran explosiveness.

Forecast

Expect a high-tension chess match in the first three minutes as Garbrandt looks to use lateral movement to evade Yanez's jab. Yanez will likely establish his range early using his 70-inch reach to pump the lead hand, forcing Cody into the pocket where the risk of a counter-shot is highest. Given Cody’s history of getting caught in trades, Yanez's pressure and volume should eventually find the chin. A clinical boxing combination from Yanez likely ends this in the second round. I am confident in a Yanez victory by TKO, as Garbrandt's defensive 58% mark won't be enough to survive the 15-minute onslaught.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

This matchup features a classic statistical disparity in output. Yanez is a volume-heavy boxer who lands 5.96 significant strikes per minute, nearly double Garbrandt's rate of 2.79. While Cody remains a dangerous counter-striker with 11 career KOs, his 40% accuracy combined with a declining chin (4 KO losses) is a dangerous recipe against a sniper like Yanez. Garbrandt's best path is through his 0.85 takedown average, utilizing his wrestling pedigree to exploit Yanez's 75% TD defense, though Cody rarely commits to his grappling in high-stakes bantamweight bouts.

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