← UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2King GreenTerrance McKinney

King Green vs Terrance McKinneyUFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2

King Green vs Terrance McKinney — Lightweight — was scheduled for Saturday, July 11, 2026 at UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2 in T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas. Official result not yet recorded. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

Main Card · LightweightID · CE507785-06C1-4A9E-8C24-5B2684DC485A
King Green

Unranked · Lightweight

King Green

"King"

36-17-1 · MMA

Unranked · Catchweight

Terrance McKinney

18-9-0 · MMA

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Green

58%

Edge16%

McKinney

42%

Skill Comparison

80
96
Striking
60
95
Wrestling
63
68
Cardio
72
73
Takedown Defense
71
81
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

GreenMetricMcKinney
5' 10"Height5' 10"
71"Reach73.5"
39Age32
—Stance—
64%Finish Rate100%

Career Records

GreenMetricMcKinney
13Wins by KO/TKO9
10Wins by Submission9
13First-Round Finishes17
6.49Sig. Strikes / Min6.83
3.63Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min4.07
53%Striking Accuracy56%
62%Striking Defense43%
0.35Knockdown Avg / 15 min1.09
1.33Takedowns / 15 min3.27
43%Takedown Accuracy40%
72%Takedown Defense73%
0.30Submissions / 15 min1.82
—Avg. Fight Time02:45

Strike Distribution

Green

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

58%

Body

25%

Leg

16%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Green

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 80%Standing80%
Clinch — 10%Clinch10%
Ground — 10%Ground10%

Primary Position Standing

McKinney

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

86%

Body

14%

Leg

0%
Sig. Strikes by Target — McKinney

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 47%Standing47%
Clinch — 12%Clinch12%
Ground — 41%Ground41%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

Latest News

— No recent news —

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Green
Key Advantages
  • Green's 62% striking defense allows him to weather the initial storm of high-output power punchers.
  • McKinney's massive 3.31 TD Avg meets Green's reliable 72% TD defense, potentially forcing a gas-draining grind.
  • Green maintains a pace of 6.46 SLpM over three rounds, whereas McKinney often fades if he doesn't find a first-round finish.
Potential Concerns
  • Green’s 7 KO losses suggest vulnerability to the explosive power McKinney showed in his 24-second finish of Kyle Nelson.
  • McKinney’s 2.1 submission average is a significant threat during scrambles in the first 5 minutes.
AI Analysis

A classic 'kill or be killed' sprinter in McKinney tests the elite durability and veteran craft of King Green.

Forecast

Expect a chaotic opening frame where McKinney attempts to utilize his reach and southpaw power to find a quick exit. McKinney will likely attempt to mix in wrestling (3.31 TD Avg) early, but Green’s experience—honed over 50+ fights—should allow him to stifle the most dangerous exchanges. As the fight enters the second round, Green’s 6.46 SLpM pace and superior cardio will begin to take over as McKinney’s output traditionally dips. We look for Green to pick apart a tiring McKinney with sharp counters, likely leading to a late TKO or a clear unanimous decision victory. The most likely window for a McKinney win is a sub-three-minute knockout, but the veteran's savvy favors Green the longer the fight lasts.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

Statistically, this is a clash of polar opposite pacing. Terrance McKinney is the definition of a frontrunner, landing 6.53 SLpM with a nearly 90% finish rate, primarily in the first round. King Green, despite being 39 years old, remains remarkably active, landing 6.46 SLpM with superior defensive metrics (62% defense vs McKinney's 43%). The critical pivot point is the take-down game; McKinney averages over 3 takedowns per 15 minutes, but Green's historical 72% defense and veteran clinch work make him difficult to hold down. If McKinney cannot secure a finish inside the first 7 minutes, his efficiency historically drops, playing directly into Green's high-volume, late-round pressure style.

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