King Green vs Terrance McKinney — UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2

← UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2King GreenTerrance McKinney

King Green vs Terrance McKinney — Lightweight — was scheduled for Saturday, July 11, 2026 at UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2 in T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas. Official result not yet recorded. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

Main Card · LightweightID · CE507785-06C1-4A9E-8C24-5B2684DC485A

Rank Veteran · Lightweight

King Green

"King"

35-17-1 (1 NC) · Boxing

Rank Prospect · Lightweight

Terrance McKinney

"T. Wrecks"

18-8-0 · Wrestling / Striker

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Green

58%

Edge16%

McKinney

42%

Skill Comparison

Striking

Wrestling

Cardio

Takedown Defense

Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

GreenMetricMcKinney

5'10"Height5'10"

71"Reach73"

39Age31

OrthodoxStanceSouthpaw

54%Finish Rate89%

Career Records

GreenMetricMcKinney

9Wins by KO/TKO10

10Wins by Submission6

6.46Sig. Strikes / Min6.53

3.55Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min3.45

53%Striking Accuracy55%

62%Striking Defense43%

1.33Takedowns / 15 min3.31

43%Takedown Accuracy40%

72%Takedown Defense72%

0.30Submissions / 15 min2.10

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Green

Key Advantages

Green's 62% striking defense allows him to weather the initial storm of high-output power punchers.
McKinney's massive 3.31 TD Avg meets Green's reliable 72% TD defense, potentially forcing a gas-draining grind.
Green maintains a pace of 6.46 SLpM over three rounds, whereas McKinney often fades if he doesn't find a first-round finish.

Potential Concerns

Green’s 7 KO losses suggest vulnerability to the explosive power McKinney showed in his 24-second finish of Kyle Nelson.
McKinney’s 2.1 submission average is a significant threat during scrambles in the first 5 minutes.

AI Analysis

A classic 'kill or be killed' sprinter in McKinney tests the elite durability and veteran craft of King Green.

Forecast

Expect a chaotic opening frame where McKinney attempts to utilize his reach and southpaw power to find a quick exit. McKinney will likely attempt to mix in wrestling (3.31 TD Avg) early, but Green’s experience—honed over 50+ fights—should allow him to stifle the most dangerous exchanges. As the fight enters the second round, Green’s 6.46 SLpM pace and superior cardio will begin to take over as McKinney’s output traditionally dips. We look for Green to pick apart a tiring McKinney with sharp counters, likely leading to a late TKO or a clear unanimous decision victory. The most likely window for a McKinney win is a sub-three-minute knockout, but the veteran's savvy favors Green the longer the fight lasts.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

Statistically, this is a clash of polar opposite pacing. Terrance McKinney is the definition of a frontrunner, landing 6.53 SLpM with a nearly 90% finish rate, primarily in the first round. King Green, despite being 39 years old, remains remarkably active, landing 6.46 SLpM with superior defensive metrics (62% defense vs McKinney's 43%). The critical pivot point is the take-down game; McKinney averages over 3 takedowns per 15 minutes, but Green's historical 72% defense and veteran clinch work make him difficult to hold down. If McKinney cannot secure a finish inside the first 7 minutes, his efficiency historically drops, playing directly into Green's high-volume, late-round pressure style.

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