← UFC 330: Makhachev vs Machado GarryCharles JohnsonJose Ochoa

Charles Johnson vs Jose OchoaUFC 330: Makhachev vs Machado Garry

Charles Johnson vs Jose Ochoa — Flyweight — is scheduled for Saturday, August 15, 2026 at UFC 330: Makhachev vs Machado Garry in Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, United States. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

Prelims · FlyweightID · 3C6A955A-98FE-426D-9CE8-546E6B2F905B

Rank #14 · Flyweight

Charles Johnson

"Inner G"

19-9-0 · Freestyle / Striking

Unranked · Flyweight

Jose Ochoa

"Kalzifer"

9-2-0 · MMA

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Johnson

56%

Edge12%

Ochoa

44%

Skill Comparison

Striking

Wrestling

Cardio

Takedown Defense

Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

JohnsonMetricOchoa

5'9"Height5'7"

70"Reach67"

35Age25

SwitchStanceSouthpaw

58%Finish Rate89%

Career Records

JohnsonMetricOchoa

8Wins by KO/TKO7

3Wins by Submission1

4First-Round Finishes4

4.54Sig. Strikes / Min5.16

3.88Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min2.99

50%Striking Accuracy47%

55%Striking Defense59%

0.31Knockdown Avg / 15 min0.60

0.47Takedowns / 15 min0.30

16%Takedown Accuracy50%

67%Takedown Defense66%

0.39Submissions / 15 min0.90

12:45Avg. Fight Time12:33

Strike Distribution

Johnson

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

50%

Body

29%

Leg

21%

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing81%

Clinch14%

Ground4%

Primary Position Standing

Ochoa

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

46%

Body

30%

Leg

24%

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

MMA Index sportsbook no-vig

Johnson25%

Ochoa75%

Masses favor Ochoa · Johnson +289 / Ochoa -360

View source →

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Johnson

Key Advantages

Johnson: deeper UFC experience and proven cardio
Ochoa: 5.16 SLpM with an 89% career finish rate
Johnson: more proven late-round consistency

Potential Concerns

Johnson must avoid giving Ochoa clean early exchanges
Ochoa is facing a substantial experience increase

AI Analysis

Johnson's experience and sustained pace are the lean, but Ochoa's youth and offensive output make this a legitimately competitive flyweight fight.

Forecast

Johnson by competitive decision.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

Ochoa has enough offense to win rounds early, but Johnson's ability to maintain pace and adjust through three rounds gives him a small edge.

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