← UFC 330: Makhachev vs Machado GarryCharles JohnsonJose Ochoa

Charles Johnson vs Jose OchoaUFC 330: Makhachev vs Machado Garry

Charles Johnson vs Jose Ochoa — Flyweight — was scheduled for Saturday, August 15, 2026 at UFC 330: Makhachev vs Machado Garry in Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, United States. Official result not yet recorded. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

Prelims · FlyweightID · 3C6A955A-98FE-426D-9CE8-546E6B2F905B
Charles Johnson

Rank #14 · Flyweight

Charles Johnson

"Inner G"

19-9-0 · Freestyle / Striking

Unranked · Flyweight

Jose Ochoa

"Kalzifer"

9-2-0 · MMA

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Johnson

56%

Edge12%

Ochoa

44%

Skill Comparison

89
89
Striking
79
72
Wrestling
94
89
Cardio
78
75
Takedown Defense
88
86
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

JohnsonMetricOchoa
5'9"Height5'7"
70"Reach67"
35Age25
SwitchStanceSouthpaw
58%Finish Rate89%

Career Records

JohnsonMetricOchoa
8Wins by KO/TKO7
3Wins by Submission1
4First-Round Finishes4
4.54Sig. Strikes / Min5.16
3.88Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min2.99
50%Striking Accuracy47%
55%Striking Defense59%
0.31Knockdown Avg / 15 min0.60
0.47Takedowns / 15 min0.30
16%Takedown Accuracy50%
67%Takedown Defense66%
0.39Submissions / 15 min0.90
12:45Avg. Fight Time12:33

Strike Distribution

Johnson

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

50%

Body

29%

Leg

21%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Johnson

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 81%Standing81%
Clinch — 14%Clinch14%
Ground — 4%Ground4%

Primary Position Standing

Ochoa

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

46%

Body

30%

Leg

24%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Ochoa

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

Johnson25%
Ochoa75%

Public sentiment favors Ochoa

Aggregated public sentiment, shown as analytics context only. Not odds and not betting advice. 18+.

Latest News

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Johnson
Key Advantages
  • Johnson: deeper UFC experience and proven cardio
  • Ochoa: 5.16 SLpM with an 89% career finish rate
  • Johnson: more proven late-round consistency
Potential Concerns
  • Johnson must avoid giving Ochoa clean early exchanges
  • Ochoa is facing a substantial experience increase
AI Analysis

Johnson's experience and sustained pace are the lean, but Ochoa's youth and offensive output make this a legitimately competitive flyweight fight.

Forecast

Johnson by competitive decision.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

Ochoa has enough offense to win rounds early, but Johnson's ability to maintain pace and adjust through three rounds gives him a small edge.

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