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UFC 330: Makhachev vs Machado Garry

Saturday, August 15, 2026 · Xfinity Mobile Arena · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, United States

Main Card09:00 PM EDT

Fights12

UFC 330: Makhachev vs Machado Garry takes place on Saturday, August 15, 2026 at Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, United States. Picks Terminal covers 12 bouts on the card with win probabilities, matchup breakdowns and fight intel. Main event: Ian Machado Garry vs Islam Makhachev.

Main Event · Welterweight · Title BoutID · 633DD769-654F-4A3C-96F4-E6B0416174F8

Rank #1 · Welterweight

Ian Machado Garry

"The Future"

17-1-0 · MMA / Judo

Champion · Welterweight

Islam Makhachev

28-1-0 · Sambo

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Garry

24%

Edge52%

Makhachev

76%

Skill Comparison

Striking

Wrestling

Cardio

Takedown Defense

Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

GarryMetricMakhachev

6'3"Height5'10"

74.5"Reach70.5"

28Age34

OrthodoxStanceSouthpaw

47%Finish Rate64%

Career Records

GarryMetricMakhachev

7Wins by KO/TKO5

1Wins by Submission13

4First-Round Finishes—

4.78Sig. Strikes / Min2.45

2.86Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min1.45

54%Striking Accuracy58%

53%Striking Defense62%

0.37Knockdown Avg / 15 min0.30

0.92Takedowns / 15 min3.10

31%Takedown Accuracy56%

80%Takedown Defense91%

0.37Submissions / 15 min0.98

14:45Avg. Fight Time11:01

Strike Distribution

Garry

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

56%

Body

19%

Leg

25%

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing91%

Clinch5%

Ground4%

Primary Position Standing

Makhachev

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

71%

Body

24%

Leg

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing57%

Clinch18%

Ground24%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

MMA Index sportsbook no-vig

Garry24%

Makhachev76%

Masses favor Makhachev · Garry +303 / Makhachev -380

View source →

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Makhachev

Key Advantages

Makhachev: elite takedown chain, positional control and 91% takedown defense
Garry: roughly double the significant-strike output and meaningful height advantage
Makhachev: proven championship-round composure and layered submission threat

Potential Concerns

Makhachev must close distance safely against a longer, mobile striker
Garry's 80% takedown defense is strong but faces a substantially higher-level wrestling test

AI Analysis

Makhachev's chain wrestling and control are the defining edge, while Garry's size, movement and high-volume distance striking create the upset path.

Forecast

Makhachev by decision or late submission is the most likely cluster; Garry's upset route is maintaining distance and forcing a prolonged kickboxing fight.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

Garry owns the cleaner long-range volume profile, but Makhachev can change the geography of the fight. His ability to force fence exchanges, connect takedown attempts and maintain control should reduce Garry's available striking minutes.

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