← UFC 330: Makhachev vs Machado GarryDustin StoltzfusMansur Abdul-Malik

Dustin Stoltzfus vs Mansur Abdul-MalikUFC 330: Makhachev vs Machado Garry

Dustin Stoltzfus vs Mansur Abdul-Malik — Middleweight — is scheduled for Saturday, August 15, 2026 at UFC 330: Makhachev vs Machado Garry in Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, United States. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

Prelims · MiddleweightID · A5C94293-EC84-4896-9B0B-EAC824E83208
Dustin Stoltzfus

Unranked · Middleweight

Dustin Stoltzfus

16-8-0 · Muay Thai

Mansur Abdul-Malik

Unranked · Middleweight

Mansur Abdul-Malik

9-1-1 · Freestyle / Wrestling

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Stoltzfus

33%

Edge34%

Abdul-Malik

67%

Skill Comparison

78
86
Striking
81
91
Wrestling
78
78
Cardio
61
88
Takedown Defense
69
83
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

StoltzfusMetricAbdul-Malik
6'0"Height6'2"
75"Reach79.5"
33Age28
OrthodoxStanceOrthodox
56%Finish Rate100%

Career Records

StoltzfusMetricAbdul-Malik
3Wins by KO/TKO7
6Wins by Submission2
6First-Round Finishes7
3.30Sig. Strikes / Min3.28
3.23Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min4.49
45%Striking Accuracy45%
48%Striking Defense46%
0.28Knockdown Avg / 15 min0.33
2.08Takedowns / 15 min1.65
37%Takedown Accuracy50%
47%Takedown Defense83%
1.11Submissions / 15 min0.33
9:49Avg. Fight Time7:35

Strike Distribution

Stoltzfus

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

50%

Body

24%

Leg

26%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Stoltzfus

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 81%Standing81%
Clinch — 10%Clinch10%
Ground — 8%Ground8%

Primary Position Standing

Abdul-Malik

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

88%

Body

6%

Leg

6%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Abdul-Malik

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 45%Standing45%
Clinch — 11%Clinch11%
Ground — 44%Ground44%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

MMA Index sportsbook no-vig

Stoltzfus19%
Abdul-Malik81%

Masses favor Abdul-Malik · Stoltzfus +415 / Abdul-Malik -550

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In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Abdul-Malik
Key Advantages
  • Abdul-Malik: unbeaten finish record across his victories
  • Stoltzfus: deeper professional experience
  • Abdul-Malik: 83%+ takedown defense and strong wrestling base
Potential Concerns
  • Abdul-Malik is still developing against experienced UFC opposition
  • Stoltzfus has a credible submission threat if Abdul-Malik overextends
AI Analysis

Abdul-Malik's athleticism, wrestling base and finishing power give him the higher ceiling, while Stoltzfus has the experience and submission skill to punish mistakes.

Forecast

Abdul-Malik by stoppage.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

Abdul-Malik should have the athletic advantage in most phases and can choose whether to pressure with power or wrestling. Stoltzfus' route is creating prolonged technical grappling exchanges.

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