← UFC 330: Makhachev vs Machado GarryJalin TurnerKauê Fernandes

Jalin Turner vs Kauê FernandesUFC 330: Makhachev vs Machado Garry

Jalin Turner vs Kauê Fernandes — Lightweight — is scheduled for Saturday, August 15, 2026 at UFC 330: Makhachev vs Machado Garry in Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, United States. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

Prelims · LightweightID · D2105E25-2123-47EE-A273-E126BD9785E4

Unranked · Lightweight

Jalin Turner

"The Tarantula"

15-9-0 · MMA

Unranked · Lightweight

Kauê Fernandes

11-2-0 · Freestyle

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Turner

57%

Edge14%

Fernandes

43%

Skill Comparison

Striking

Wrestling

Cardio

Takedown Defense

Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

TurnerMetricFernandes

6'3"Height5'9"

77"Reach73"

30Age30

SouthpawStanceOrthodox

100%Finish Rate73%

Career Records

TurnerMetricFernandes

11Wins by KO/TKO6

4Wins by Submission2

12First-Round Finishes7

5.79Sig. Strikes / Min4.28

4.54Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min1.42

48%Striking Accuracy55%

42%Striking Defense62%

1.51Knockdown Avg / 15 min—

0.75Takedowns / 15 min1.18

55%Takedown Accuracy100%

75%Takedown Defense76%

1.06Submissions / 15 min0

6:38Avg. Fight Time—

Strike Distribution

Turner

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

68%

Body

26%

Leg

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing73%

Clinch10%

Ground17%

Primary Position Standing

Fernandes

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

48%

Body

20%

Leg

32%

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

MMA Index sportsbook no-vig

Turner60%

Fernandes40%

Masses favor Turner · Turner -165 / Fernandes +145

View source →

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Turner

Key Advantages

Turner: 77-inch reach and 1.51 knockdowns per 15
Fernandes: 62% striking defense and low 1.42 SApM
Turner: 100% career finish rate

Potential Concerns

Turner's 42% striking defense leaves him hittable
Fernandes is entering the highest-risk offensive matchup of his UFC run

AI Analysis

Turner's enormous length and finishing power are difficult to replicate in training, while Fernandes brings efficient defense and a more controlled statistical profile.

Forecast

Turner by stoppage narrowly outranks Fernandes by decision.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

Turner is most dangerous when the fight stays at his preferred long range. Fernandes' route is disciplined defense, leg work and forcing Turner to reset repeatedly.

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