← UFC 330: Makhachev vs Machado GarryJalin TurnerKauê Fernandes

Jalin Turner vs Kauê FernandesUFC 330: Makhachev vs Machado Garry

Jalin Turner vs Kauê Fernandes — Lightweight — was scheduled for Saturday, August 15, 2026 at UFC 330: Makhachev vs Machado Garry in Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, United States. Official result not yet recorded. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

Prelims · LightweightID · D2105E25-2123-47EE-A273-E126BD9785E4
Jalin Turner

Unranked · Lightweight

Jalin Turner

"The Tarantula"

15-9-0 · MMA

Unranked · Lightweight

Kauê Fernandes

11-2-0 · Freestyle

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Turner

57%

Edge14%

Fernandes

43%

Skill Comparison

92
88
Striking
74
76
Wrestling
77
88
Cardio
79
82
Takedown Defense
72
88
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

TurnerMetricFernandes
6'3"Height5'9"
77"Reach73"
30Age30
SouthpawStanceOrthodox
100%Finish Rate73%

Career Records

TurnerMetricFernandes
11Wins by KO/TKO6
4Wins by Submission2
12First-Round Finishes7
5.79Sig. Strikes / Min4.28
4.54Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min1.42
48%Striking Accuracy55%
42%Striking Defense62%
1.51Knockdown Avg / 15 min—
0.75Takedowns / 15 min1.18
55%Takedown Accuracy100%
75%Takedown Defense76%
1.06Submissions / 15 min0
6:38Avg. Fight Time—

Strike Distribution

Turner

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

68%

Body

26%

Leg

6%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Turner

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 73%Standing73%
Clinch — 10%Clinch10%
Ground — 17%Ground17%

Primary Position Standing

Fernandes

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

48%

Body

20%

Leg

32%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Fernandes

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

Turner60%
Fernandes40%

Public sentiment favors Turner

Aggregated public sentiment, shown as analytics context only. Not odds and not betting advice. 18+.

Latest News

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Turner
Key Advantages
  • Turner: 77-inch reach and 1.51 knockdowns per 15
  • Fernandes: 62% striking defense and low 1.42 SApM
  • Turner: 100% career finish rate
Potential Concerns
  • Turner's 42% striking defense leaves him hittable
  • Fernandes is entering the highest-risk offensive matchup of his UFC run
AI Analysis

Turner's enormous length and finishing power are difficult to replicate in training, while Fernandes brings efficient defense and a more controlled statistical profile.

Forecast

Turner by stoppage narrowly outranks Fernandes by decision.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

Turner is most dangerous when the fight stays at his preferred long range. Fernandes' route is disciplined defense, leg work and forcing Turner to reset repeatedly.

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