← UFC 330: Makhachev vs Machado GarryJeremiah WellsMyktybek Orolbai

Jeremiah Wells vs Myktybek OrolbaiUFC 330: Makhachev vs Machado Garry

Jeremiah Wells vs Myktybek Orolbai — Welterweight — is scheduled for Saturday, August 15, 2026 at UFC 330: Makhachev vs Machado Garry in Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, United States. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

Prelims · WelterweightID · 1BE180EE-02E0-4E10-A569-D48674BDC732

Unranked · Welterweight

Jeremiah Wells

13-4-1 · Striker

Unranked · Welterweight

Myktybek Orolbai

16-2-1 · MMA

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Wells

37%

Edge26%

Orolbai

63%

Skill Comparison

Striking

Wrestling

Cardio

Takedown Defense

Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

WellsMetricOrolbai

5'9"Height5'10"

74"Reach74"

39Age28

SwitchStanceOrthodox

69%Finish Rate81%

Career Records

WellsMetricOrolbai

5Wins by KO/TKO7

4Wins by Submission6

5First-Round Finishes9

2.35Sig. Strikes / Min2.78

1.28Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min2.70

46%Striking Accuracy50%

48%Striking Defense51%

0.44Knockdown Avg / 15 min—

3.06Takedowns / 15 min8.77

46%Takedown Accuracy59%

50%Takedown Defense40%

1.31Submissions / 15 min0.50

9:47Avg. Fight Time—

Strike Distribution

Wells

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

83%

Body

15%

Leg

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing53%

Clinch3%

Ground44%

Primary Position Standing

Orolbai

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

75%

Body

13%

Leg

12%

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

MMA Index sportsbook no-vig

Wells18%

Orolbai82%

Masses favor Orolbai · Wells +446 / Orolbai -600

View source →

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Orolbai

Key Advantages

Orolbai: 8.77 takedowns per 15 minutes
Wells: strong submission activity and veteran physicality
Orolbai: major age and pace advantage

Potential Concerns

Orolbai's 40% takedown defense can produce chaotic reversals
Wells must manage the pace against a much younger opponent

AI Analysis

Orolbai's extraordinary wrestling volume and age advantage lean the matchup his way, but Wells remains physically dangerous with real submission upside.

Forecast

Orolbai by decision or late stoppage.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

This should be decided through wrestling transitions. Orolbai's relentless volume creates more opportunities over three rounds, while Wells' danger is greatest early and in scrambles.

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