← UFC 330: Makhachev vs Machado GarryTresean GoreVicente Luque

Tresean Gore vs Vicente LuqueUFC 330: Makhachev vs Machado Garry

Tresean Gore vs Vicente Luque — Middleweight — is scheduled for Saturday, August 15, 2026 at UFC 330: Makhachev vs Machado Garry in Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, United States. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

Prelims · MiddleweightID · 2ECB9BA5-4095-490A-B66A-1C93191BFCEF

Unranked · Middleweight

Tresean Gore

"Mr Vicious"

7-4-0 · Boxing

Unranked · Middleweight

Vicente Luque

"The Silent Assassin"

24-12-1 · Muay Thai

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Gore

38%

Edge24%

Luque

62%

Skill Comparison

Striking

Wrestling

Cardio

Takedown Defense

Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

GoreMetricLuque

6'0"Height5'11"

75"Reach75"

31Age34

SwitchStanceOrthodox

86%Finish Rate88%

Career Records

GoreMetricLuque

2Wins by KO/TKO11

4Wins by Submission10

3First-Round Finishes15

3.41Sig. Strikes / Min4.80

7Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min5.24

50%Striking Accuracy51%

41%Striking Defense52%

0Knockdown Avg / 15 min0.70

1.91Takedowns / 15 min0.89

18%Takedown Accuracy48%

84%Takedown Defense60%

0.96Submissions / 15 min0.70

8:58Avg. Fight Time9:28

Strike Distribution

Gore

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

57%

Body

15%

Leg

27%

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing84%

Clinch11%

Ground5%

Primary Position Standing

Luque

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

61%

Body

13%

Leg

26%

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing88%

Clinch5%

Ground6%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

MMA Index sportsbook no-vig

Gore55%

Luque45%

Masses favor Gore · Gore -135 / Luque +115

View source →

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Luque

Key Advantages

Luque: 21 career finishes and broad finishing toolkit
Gore: strong 84% takedown defense and dangerous submissions
Luque: substantially more high-level experience

Potential Concerns

Luque absorbs over five significant strikes per minute
Gore's current 7.00 SApM creates major defensive risk

AI Analysis

Luque's experience and finishing versatility meet Gore's improved submission game, but Gore's defensive striking numbers remain dangerous.

Forecast

Luque by stoppage is the preferred outcome cluster.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

Both fighters can finish, but Luque has more proven routes and better offensive layering. Gore can make the grappling exchanges dangerous, yet his defensive striking profile gives Luque repeated opportunities.

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