← UFC 333: Volkanovski vs EvloevMerab DvalishviliPetr Yan

Merab Dvalishvili vs Petr YanUFC 333: Volkanovski vs Evloev

Merab Dvalishvili vs Petr Yan — Bantamweight title fight — is scheduled for Saturday, October 24, 2026 at UFC 333: Volkanovski vs Evloev in Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

Co-Main Event · Bantamweight · Title BoutID · 7C9CFFA0-D347-490C-ACFE-2861428E40C2

Merab Dvalishvili

Rank #1 · Bantamweight

Merab Dvalishvili

"The Machine"

21-5-0 · Wrestling

Petr Yan

Champion · Bantamweight

Petr Yan

"No Mercy"

20-5-0 · Boxing

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Dvalishvili

49%

Edge2%

Yan

51%

Skill Comparison

83

94

Striking

98

86

Wrestling

99

94

Cardio

88

93

Takedown Defense

92

91

Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

DvalishviliMetricYan

5' 6"Height5' 7.5"

68"Reach67"

35Age33

—Stance—

24%Finish Rate40%

Career Records

DvalishviliMetricYan

3Wins by KO/TKO7

2Wins by Submission1

—First-Round Finishes3

4.42Sig. Strikes / Min5.16

2.80Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min4.24

42%Striking Accuracy55%

54%Striking Defense60%

0.05Knockdown Avg / 15 min0.53

5.97Takedowns / 15 min1.70

5%Takedown Accuracy—

76%Takedown Defense86%

0.35Submissions / 15 min0.11

17:36Avg. Fight Time17:38

Strike Distribution

Dvalishvili

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

67%

Body

17%

Leg

16%

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 64%

Standing64%

Clinch — 15%

Clinch15%

Ground — 21%

Ground21%

Primary Position Standing

Yan

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

69%

Body

19%

Leg

12%

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 75%

Standing75%

Clinch — 12%

Clinch12%

Ground — 13%

Ground13%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

Latest News

— No recent news —

Dvalishvili

Strengths

Dvalishvili averages 5.97 takedowns per 15 minutes
Dvalishvili absorbs only 2.80 significant strikes per minute
Relentless entry volume can suppress Yan's combination output

Weaknesses

Yan owns 86% takedown defense
He lands 5.16 significant strikes per minute at 55% accuracy

Opportunities

Force Petr Yan away from the projected win condition
Exploit transitions after the first defensive layer

Threats

Yan owns 86% takedown defense
Yan won their most recent five-round meeting

Yan

Strengths

Yan owns 86% takedown defense
He lands 5.16 significant strikes per minute at 55% accuracy
Yan won their most recent five-round meeting

Weaknesses

Dvalishvili averages 5.97 takedowns per 15 minutes
Dvalishvili absorbs only 2.80 significant strikes per minute

Opportunities

Establish the preferred phase early
Turn measurable advantages into repeatable scoring sequences

Threats

Merab Dvalishvili changing the fight phase
Relentless entry volume can suppress Yan's combination output

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Yan

Key Advantages

Dvalishvili averages 5.97 takedowns per 15 minutes
Dvalishvili absorbs only 2.80 significant strikes per minute
Relentless entry volume can suppress Yan's combination output

Potential Concerns

Yan owns 86% takedown defense
He lands 5.16 significant strikes per minute at 55% accuracy
Yan won their most recent five-round meeting

AI Analysis

Yan's 86% takedown defense and sharper late-round striking give him a fractional edge in the trilogy, while Dvalishvili's historic pace makes the outcome highly sensitive to control minutes.

Forecast

Yan is projected to defend enough entries and land the cleaner late-round offense to retain by a close decision; Dvalishvili's volume remains the clearest swing factor.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

Yan must deny the first layer of takedowns without spending entire rounds defending along the fence, then increase combination volume as reads accumulate. Dvalishvili wins by forcing constant reactions, chaining attempts and turning clean striking minutes into scrambles. Yan's defensive wrestling and superior accuracy justify the slightest lean, but the pace battle remains nearly even.

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