← UFC Fight Night: Allen vs DuncanAndre FiliKai Kamaka III

Andre Fili vs Kai Kamaka IIIUFC Fight Night: Allen vs Duncan

Andre Fili vs Kai Kamaka III — Featherweight — is scheduled for Saturday, October 10, 2026 at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Duncan in Meta APEX, Las Vegas. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

Main Card · FeatherweightID · DBD4D46E-83D9-4907-8767-B729B920A69A

Unranked · Featherweight

Andre Fili

"Touchy"

25-14-0 · MMA

Unranked · Featherweight

Kai Kamaka III

"The Fighting Hawaiian"

18-8-1 · Boxing

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Fili

52%

Edge4%

III

48%

Skill Comparison

76
79
Striking
76
70
Wrestling
79
80
Cardio
72
55
Takedown Defense
73
74
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

FiliMetricIII
5' 11"Height5' 7"
74"Reach69"
36Age31
—Stance—
52%Finish Rate22%

Career Records

FiliMetricIII
10Wins by KO/TKO3
3Wins by Submission1
8First-Round Finishes—
3.89Sig. Strikes / Min5.49
4.55Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min6.03
38%Striking Accuracy59%
50%Striking Defense55%
0.31Knockdown Avg / 15 min0.21
2.24Takedowns / 15 min1.45
—Takedown Accuracy53%
72%Takedown Defense55%
0.21Submissions / 15 min0.21
10:41Avg. Fight Time12:05

Strike Distribution

Fili

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

73%

Body

15%

Leg

12%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Fili

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 87%Standing87%
Clinch — 6%Clinch6%
Ground — 7%Ground7%

Primary Position Standing

III

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Balanced

Head

42%

Body

41%

Leg

16%
Sig. Strikes by Target — III

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 84%Standing84%
Clinch — 13%Clinch13%
Ground — 3%Ground3%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

Latest News

— No recent news —

Fili

Strengths

  • 72% takedown defense
  • Five-inch reach advantage
  • More than 1,100 landed UFC significant strikes

Weaknesses

  • Sample uncertainty can distort rate statistics
  • Can be punished when the preferred phase breaks down

Opportunities

  • Establish the preferred phase early
  • Build repeatable offense rather than chase isolated moments

Threats

  • Kai Kamaka III changing the fight phase
  • A high-impact momentum swing
III

Strengths

  • Live counter-route against Andre Fili
  • Can outperform the model by controlling the preferred phase

Weaknesses

  • Sample uncertainty can distort rate statistics
  • Can be punished when the preferred phase breaks down

Opportunities

  • Establish the preferred phase early
  • Build repeatable offense rather than chase isolated moments

Threats

  • Andre Fili changing the fight phase
  • A high-impact momentum swing

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Fili
Key Advantages
  • 72% takedown defense
  • Five-inch reach advantage
  • More than 1,100 landed UFC significant strikes
Potential Concerns
  • Kamaka lands 5.49 significant strikes per minute
  • Fili absorbs 4.55 significant strikes per minute
  • Fili's age and long UFC mileage narrow the margin
AI Analysis

Fili's experience, reach and defensive wrestling earn a slight lean in a matchup where Kamaka's pace can keep every round close.

Forecast

Expect a competitive decision-shaped fight, with Fili projected to edge the cleaner long-range and grappling moments.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

Fili should use reach, kicks and occasional takedowns to break Kamaka's rhythm. Kamaka's body work and sustained pace can win exchanges if he gets inside without eating straight counters. Fili's broader UFC sample and physical dimensions provide only a modest edge.

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