Main Event · MiddleweightID · E1514666-59B4-4F35-AC0C-90FFB9071795
Rank #4 · Middleweight
Brendan Allen
"All In"
27-7-0 · MMA
Rank #10 · Middleweight
Christian Leroy Duncan
"CLD"
15-2-0 · MMA
Win Probability Model · v4.2
Allen
58%
Edge16%
Duncan
42%
Skill Comparison
78
84
Striking
84
63
Wrestling
82
79
Cardio
58
58
Takedown Defense
80
79
Chin Durability
Physical Attributes
AllenMetricDuncan
6' 2"Height6' 2"
75"Reach79"
30Age31
—Stance—
74%Finish Rate73%
Career Records
AllenMetricDuncan
6Wins by KO/TKO10
14Wins by Submission1
11First-Round Finishes5
3.75Sig. Strikes / Min4.45
3.78Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min2.36
52%Striking Accuracy58%
48%Striking Defense54%
0.27Knockdown Avg / 15 min0.43
1.52Takedowns / 15 min0.43
—Takedown Accuracy16%
58%Takedown Defense58%
1.06Submissions / 15 min0
11:19Avg. Fight Time10:33
Strike Distribution
Allen
Sig. Strikes by Target
Primary Target Head
Head
66%
Body
21%
Leg
14%
Sig. Strikes by Position
Standing77%
Clinch7%
Ground15%Primary Position Standing
Duncan
Sig. Strikes by Target
Primary Target Head
Head
49%
Body
17%
Leg
34%
Sig. Strikes by Position
Standing74%Clinch19%Ground7%Primary Position Standing
Fight Intel
Public Consensus
— Consensus data unavailable —
Latest News
— No recent news —
Allen
Strengths
- Fourteen submission wins and 1.06 submissions per 15 minutes
- Proven five-round pace against ranked opposition
- More varied phase-changing offense
Weaknesses
- Sample uncertainty can distort rate statistics
- Can be punished when the preferred phase breaks down
Opportunities
- Establish the preferred phase early
- Build repeatable offense rather than chase isolated moments
Threats
- Christian Leroy Duncan changing the fight phase
- A high-impact momentum swing
Duncan
Strengths
- Live counter-route against Brendan Allen
- Can outperform the model by controlling the preferred phase
Weaknesses
- Sample uncertainty can distort rate statistics
- Can be punished when the preferred phase breaks down
Opportunities
- Establish the preferred phase early
- Build repeatable offense rather than chase isolated moments
Threats
- Brendan Allen changing the fight phase
- A high-impact momentum swing