← UFC Fight Night: Allen vs DuncanErnesta KareckaiteMelissa Gatto

Ernesta Kareckaite vs Melissa GattoUFC Fight Night: Allen vs Duncan

Ernesta Kareckaite vs Melissa Gatto — Women's Flyweight — is scheduled for Saturday, October 10, 2026 at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Duncan in Meta APEX, Las Vegas. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

Prelims · Women's FlyweightID · A24A52D0-49AA-4060-BF15-AB2BB74482B4
Ernesta Kareckaite

Unranked · Women's Flyweight

Ernesta Kareckaite

"Heavy-Handed"

6-2-1 · MMA

Melissa Gatto

Unranked · Women's Flyweight

Melissa Gatto

9-3-2 · Jiu-Jitsu

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Kareckaite

44%

Edge12%

Gatto

56%

Skill Comparison

80
77
Striking
65
82
Wrestling
82
80
Cardio
81
59
Takedown Defense
78
79
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

KareckaiteMetricGatto
5' 9"Height5' 5"
71"Reach69"
28Age30
—Stance—
33%Finish Rate78%

Career Records

KareckaiteMetricGatto
2Wins by KO/TKO3
0Wins by Submission4
2First-Round Finishes4
7.28Sig. Strikes / Min3.47
6.47Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min2.67
42%Striking Accuracy50%
50%Striking Defense54%
0Knockdown Avg / 15 min0.20
0.75Takedowns / 15 min1.77
81%Takedown Defense59%
0Submissions / 15 min0.39
15:00Avg. Fight Time12:44

Strike Distribution

Kareckaite

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

76%

Body

19%

Leg

5%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Kareckaite

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 84%Standing84%
Clinch — 14%Clinch14%
Ground — 2%Ground2%

Primary Position Standing

Gatto

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

54%

Body

29%

Leg

17%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Gatto

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 85%Standing85%
Clinch — 10%Clinch10%
Ground — 5%Ground5%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

Latest News

— No recent news —

Kareckaite

Strengths

  • 7.28 significant strikes landed per minute
  • 81% takedown defense
  • Height and reach advantages

Weaknesses

  • Sample uncertainty can distort rate statistics
  • Can be punished when the preferred phase breaks down

Opportunities

  • Establish the preferred phase early
  • Build repeatable offense rather than chase isolated moments

Threats

  • Melissa Gatto changing the fight phase
  • A high-impact momentum swing
Gatto

Strengths

  • Live counter-route against Ernesta Kareckaite
  • Can outperform the model by controlling the preferred phase

Weaknesses

  • Sample uncertainty can distort rate statistics
  • Can be punished when the preferred phase breaks down

Opportunities

  • Establish the preferred phase early
  • Build repeatable offense rather than chase isolated moments

Threats

  • Ernesta Kareckaite changing the fight phase
  • A high-impact momentum swing

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Gatto
Key Advantages
  • 7.28 significant strikes landed per minute
  • 81% takedown defense
  • Height and reach advantages
Potential Concerns
  • Kareckaite absorbs 6.47 significant strikes per minute
  • Gatto absorbs only 2.67 per minute
  • Gatto owns seven career finishes across striking and submissions
AI Analysis

Gatto's defensive efficiency and grappling versatility offer better answers to Kareckaite's extreme volume.

Forecast

Kareckaite is projected to lead volume, but Gatto should land the cleaner offense and create enough grappling sequences to win the more valuable minutes.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

Kareckaite should press a high-volume kickboxing fight and use her length to keep Gatto reacting. Gatto's route is to make that volume inefficient, counter cleanly and mix 1.77 takedowns per 15 minutes. Gatto's defense and phase variety outweigh Kareckaite's output in the projection.

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