← UFC Fight Night: Allen vs DuncanFrancisco PradoIsmael Bonfim

Francisco Prado vs Ismael BonfimUFC Fight Night: Allen vs Duncan

Francisco Prado vs Ismael Bonfim — Lightweight — is scheduled for Saturday, October 10, 2026 at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Duncan in Meta APEX, Las Vegas. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

Prelims · LightweightID · C8810598-8E49-4871-815C-716F341447A5
Francisco Prado

Unranked · Lightweight

Francisco Prado

12-5-0 · —

Ismael Bonfim

Unranked · Lightweight

Ismael Bonfim

"Marreta"

20-7-0 · Boxer

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Prado

40%

Edge20%

Bonfim

60%

Skill Comparison

77
83
Striking
73
70
Wrestling
78
78
Cardio
40
77
Takedown Defense
76
78
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

PradoMetricBonfim
5' 10"Height5' 8"
69"Reach71.5"
24Age30
—Stance—
100%Finish Rate65%

Career Records

PradoMetricBonfim
6Wins by KO/TKO9
6Wins by Submission4
9First-Round Finishes6
3.68Sig. Strikes / Min5.10
4.31Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min3.96
44%Striking Accuracy54%
54%Striking Defense63%
0.19Knockdown Avg / 15 min0.49
0.76Takedowns / 15 min1.22
—Takedown Accuracy33%
40%Takedown Defense77%
0.76Submissions / 15 min0
13:11Avg. Fight Time08:46

Strike Distribution

Prado

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

50%

Body

22%

Leg

27%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Prado

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 79%Standing79%
Clinch — 7%Clinch7%
Ground — 14%Ground14%

Primary Position Standing

Bonfim

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

67%

Body

21%

Leg

12%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Bonfim

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 90%Standing90%
Clinch — 8%Clinch8%
Ground — 2%Ground2%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

Latest News

— No recent news —

Prado

Strengths

  • Youth and aggressive finishing pressure
  • Twelve finishes in twelve professional wins
  • Active submission threat

Weaknesses

  • Sample uncertainty can distort rate statistics
  • Can be punished when the preferred phase breaks down

Opportunities

  • Establish the preferred phase early
  • Build repeatable offense rather than chase isolated moments

Threats

  • Ismael Bonfim changing the fight phase
  • A high-impact momentum swing
Bonfim

Strengths

  • Live counter-route against Francisco Prado
  • Can outperform the model by controlling the preferred phase

Weaknesses

  • Sample uncertainty can distort rate statistics
  • Can be punished when the preferred phase breaks down

Opportunities

  • Establish the preferred phase early
  • Build repeatable offense rather than chase isolated moments

Threats

  • Francisco Prado changing the fight phase
  • A high-impact momentum swing

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Bonfim
Key Advantages
  • Youth and aggressive finishing pressure
  • Twelve finishes in twelve professional wins
  • Active submission threat
Potential Concerns
  • Bonfim owns large striking-defense and takedown-defense edges
  • Prado absorbs 4.31 significant strikes per minute
  • Prado's 40% takedown defense can concede control
AI Analysis

Bonfim's efficiency, defense and range management are better suited to a long fight; Prado's all-finishes record keeps the upset path dangerous.

Forecast

Bonfim is projected to weather Prado's early pressure and separate through cleaner striking and defensive consistency as the fight extends.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

Prado must make the fight physical early and deny Bonfim a comfortable boxing rhythm. Bonfim's 5.10 strikes landed per minute, 63% striking defense and 77% takedown defense give him more ways to win repeatable exchanges. Prado's pressure raises variance, but Bonfim is the more complete statistical side.

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