← UFC Fight Night: Allen vs DuncanKetlen SouzaLoopy Godinez

Ketlen Souza vs Loopy GodinezUFC Fight Night: Allen vs Duncan

Ketlen Souza vs Loopy Godinez — Women's Strawweight — is scheduled for Saturday, October 10, 2026 at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Duncan in Meta APEX, Las Vegas. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

Main Card · Women's StrawweightID · C0DBF0E0-9B61-431A-95EF-4390177E390F
Ketlen Souza

Unranked · Women's Strawweight

Ketlen Souza

"Esquentadinha"

17-6-0 · Boxing

Loopy Godinez

Rank #8 · Women's Strawweight

Loopy Godinez

"Loopy"

14-6-0 · —

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Souza

38%

Edge24%

Godinez

62%

Skill Comparison

80
79
Striking
61
84
Wrestling
75
85
Cardio
54
77
Takedown Defense
75
79
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

SouzaMetricGodinez
5' 3"Height5' 2"
63"Reach61"
32Age33
—Stance—
65%Finish Rate21%

Career Records

SouzaMetricGodinez
9Wins by KO/TKO1
2Wins by Submission2
6First-Round Finishes2
4.11Sig. Strikes / Min4.43
3.89Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min3.94
57%Striking Accuracy49%
53%Striking Defense62%
0.45Knockdown Avg / 15 min0.07
0.45Takedowns / 15 min2.99
54%Takedown Defense77%
0.23Submissions / 15 min0.82
09:29Avg. Fight Time13:21

Strike Distribution

Souza

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

55%

Body

27%

Leg

18%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Souza

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 85%Standing85%
Clinch — 14%Clinch14%
Ground — 1%Ground1%

Primary Position Standing

Godinez

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

78%

Body

16%

Leg

6%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Godinez

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 84%Standing84%
Clinch — 10%Clinch10%
Ground — 6%Ground6%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

Latest News

— No recent news —

Souza

Strengths

  • Live counter-route against Loopy Godinez
  • Can outperform the model by controlling the preferred phase

Weaknesses

  • Sample uncertainty can distort rate statistics
  • Can be punished when the preferred phase breaks down

Opportunities

  • Establish the preferred phase early
  • Build repeatable offense rather than chase isolated moments

Threats

  • Loopy Godinez changing the fight phase
  • A high-impact momentum swing
Godinez

Strengths

  • 2.99 takedowns per 15 minutes
  • 77% takedown defense and 62% striking defense
  • 887 landed UFC significant strikes

Weaknesses

  • Sample uncertainty can distort rate statistics
  • Can be punished when the preferred phase breaks down

Opportunities

  • Establish the preferred phase early
  • Build repeatable offense rather than chase isolated moments

Threats

  • Ketlen Souza changing the fight phase
  • A high-impact momentum swing

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Godinez
Key Advantages
  • 2.99 takedowns per 15 minutes
  • 77% takedown defense and 62% striking defense
  • 887 landed UFC significant strikes
Potential Concerns
  • Souza owns nine knockout wins
  • Godinez gives up two inches of height and reach
  • Souza's 57% striking accuracy punishes loose entries
AI Analysis

Godinez's wrestling volume, defense and deeper UFC sample create the clearest repeatable path; Souza carries the heavier striking threat.

Forecast

Godinez is projected to bank control and volume over time, while Souza's upset path centers on damaging counters before the clinch develops.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

Godinez can layer combinations into takedowns and force Souza to defend across phases. Souza needs to keep her back off the fence and make Godinez pay before clinch contact. Godinez's deeper sample, defensive profile and repeatable wrestling produce the stronger minute-winning route.

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