Leon Shahbazyan vs Niko PriceUFC Fight Night: Allen vs Duncan

Leon Shahbazyan vs Niko Price — Welterweight — is scheduled for Saturday, October 10, 2026 at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Duncan in Meta APEX, Las Vegas. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

Prelims · WelterweightID · 06A32471-2433-41ED-B34B-39E1A22CD976
Leon Shahbazyan

Unranked · Welterweight

Leon Shahbazyan

"S.O.G."

12-5-0 · Striker

Niko Price

Unranked · Welterweight

Niko Price

"The Hybrid"

16-11-0 · Freestyle

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Shahbazyan

56%

Edge12%

Price

44%

Skill Comparison

75
78
Striking
85
73
Wrestling
67
70
Cardio
—
50
Takedown Defense
69
69
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

ShahbazyanMetricPrice
6' 4"Height6' 0"
77"Reach76"
30Age36
—Stance—
100%Finish Rate81%

Career Records

ShahbazyanMetricPrice
1Wins by KO/TKO10
11Wins by Submission3
11First-Round Finishes10
6.10Sig. Strikes / Min5.11
8.45Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min5.57
52%Striking Accuracy43%
33%Striking Defense48%
1.41Knockdown Avg / 15 min0.44
1.41Takedowns / 15 min1.06
—Takedown Defense50%
0Submissions / 15 min0.62
05:20Avg. Fight Time08:07

Strike Distribution

Shahbazyan

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

62%

Body

34%

Leg

5%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Shahbazyan

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 78%Standing78%
Clinch — 5%Clinch5%
Ground — 17%Ground17%

Primary Position Standing

Price

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

61%

Body

16%

Leg

22%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Price

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 78%Standing78%
Clinch — 11%Clinch11%
Ground — 11%Ground11%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

Latest News

— No recent news —

Shahbazyan

Strengths

  • Live counter-route against Niko Price
  • Can outperform the model by controlling the preferred phase

Weaknesses

  • Sample uncertainty can distort rate statistics
  • Can be punished when the preferred phase breaks down

Opportunities

  • Establish the preferred phase early
  • Build repeatable offense rather than chase isolated moments

Threats

  • Niko Price changing the fight phase
  • A high-impact momentum swing
Price

Strengths

  • Far deeper UFC experience
  • Proven offense across striking and submission phases
  • Four-inch sample-based experience advantage in difficult fights

Weaknesses

  • Sample uncertainty can distort rate statistics
  • Can be punished when the preferred phase breaks down

Opportunities

  • Establish the preferred phase early
  • Build repeatable offense rather than chase isolated moments

Threats

  • Leon Shahbazyan changing the fight phase
  • A high-impact momentum swing

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Shahbazyan
Key Advantages
  • Far deeper UFC experience
  • Proven offense across striking and submission phases
  • Four-inch sample-based experience advantage in difficult fights
Potential Concerns
  • Shahbazyan owns eleven submission wins
  • Price absorbs 5.57 significant strikes per minute
  • Price's recent durability and age add downside
AI Analysis

Shahbazyan's submission-heavy record and youth earn a lean, but his tiny UFC sample and high absorption make Price's chaos unusually live.

Forecast

Shahbazyan is projected to find the higher-leverage grappling moments, while Price remains dangerous in any extended scramble or pocket exchange.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

Price thrives in broken exchanges and must prevent Shahbazyan from settling into controlled grappling sequences. Shahbazyan's eleven submission wins create the cleaner matchup lever, yet his 65-strike UFC sample and 8.45 absorbed rate are too unstable for a strong projection. The younger finisher gets a cautious edge.

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