← UFC Fight Night: Allen vs DuncanMalcolm WellmakerOtari Tanzilovi

Malcolm Wellmaker vs Otari TanziloviUFC Fight Night: Allen vs Duncan

Malcolm Wellmaker vs Otari Tanzilovi — Bantamweight — is scheduled for Saturday, October 10, 2026 at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Duncan in Meta APEX, Las Vegas. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

Main Card · BantamweightID · 2429C930-8F9B-47B4-B464-011894791B5D

Unranked · Bantamweight

Malcolm Wellmaker

"The Machine"

10-2-0 · Striker

Unranked · Bantamweight

Otari Tanzilovi

10-2-0 · Kickboxer

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Wellmaker

54%

Edge8%

Tanzilovi

46%

Skill Comparison

82

78

Striking

58

82

Wrestling

72

77

Cardio

47

86

Takedown Defense

76

77

Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

WellmakerMetricTanzilovi

5' 10"Height5' 10"

71.5"Reach—

32Age28

—Stance—

80%Finish Rate70%

Career Records

WellmakerMetricTanzilovi

6Wins by KO/TKO7

2Wins by Submission0

6First-Round Finishes5

4.58Sig. Strikes / Min4.20

4.23Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min4.20

55%Striking Accuracy69%

52%Striking Defense50%

1.44Knockdown Avg / 15 min0

0Takedowns / 15 min4.50

47%Takedown Defense86%

0Submissions / 15 min0

06:15Avg. Fight Time15:00

Strike Distribution

Wellmaker

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Balanced

Head

43%

Body

43%

Leg

13%

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 80%

Standing80%

Clinch — 20%

Clinch20%

Ground — 0%

Ground0%

Primary Position Standing

Tanzilovi

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

59%

Body

36%

Leg

6%

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 63%

Standing63%

Clinch — 37%

Clinch37%

Ground — 0%

Ground0%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

Latest News

— No recent news —

Wellmaker

Strengths

1.44 knockdowns per 15 minutes
Six knockout wins and six first-round finishes
Cleaner demonstrated finishing route

Weaknesses

Sample uncertainty can distort rate statistics
Can be punished when the preferred phase breaks down

Opportunities

Establish the preferred phase early
Build repeatable offense rather than chase isolated moments

Threats

Otari Tanzilovi changing the fight phase
A high-impact momentum swing

Tanzilovi

Strengths

Live counter-route against Malcolm Wellmaker
Can outperform the model by controlling the preferred phase

Weaknesses

Sample uncertainty can distort rate statistics
Can be punished when the preferred phase breaks down

Opportunities

Establish the preferred phase early
Build repeatable offense rather than chase isolated moments

Threats

Malcolm Wellmaker changing the fight phase
A high-impact momentum swing

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Wellmaker

Key Advantages

1.44 knockdowns per 15 minutes
Six knockout wins and six first-round finishes
Cleaner demonstrated finishing route

Potential Concerns

Tanzilovi averages 4.50 takedowns per 15 minutes
Wellmaker's 47% takedown defense is the central vulnerability
Both official UFC samples remain small

AI Analysis

Wellmaker's knockdown threat narrowly outweighs Tanzilovi's wrestling route, but both athletes have limited UFC samples.

Forecast

Wellmaker is projected to land the more damaging offense, but sustained Tanzilovi control could reverse close rounds.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

Wellmaker needs space to build combinations and force Tanzilovi into increasingly risky entries. Tanzilovi can flip the matchup by chaining takedowns and making Wellmaker work from the fence. The power edge gives Wellmaker a slight lean, while Tanzilovi's wrestling keeps the estimate close.

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