← UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. GuskovMagomed ZaynukovDamian Rzepecki

Magomed Zaynukov vs Damian Rzepecki — Lightweight — was scheduled for Saturday, July 25, 2026 at UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov in Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi. Official result not yet recorded. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

Main Card · LightweightID · 6CDCDA12-48CA-4694-8A30-F97A2248AE48

Rank UFC Debutant · Lightweight

Magomed Zaynukov

"Wild Chanco"

8-0-0 · Muay Thai / Wrestling

Rank UFC Debutant · Lightweight

Damian Rzepecki

"The Butcher"

10-0-0 · Striker / Submission Artist

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Zaynukov

64%

Edge28%

Rzepecki

36%

Skill Comparison

94
65
Striking
75
60
Wrestling
82
78
Cardio
0
0
Takedown Defense
85
88
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

ZaynukovMetricRzepecki
5'10"Height5'10"
68.5"Reach0"
31Age24
OrthodoxStanceOrthodox
63%Finish Rate90%

Career Records

ZaynukovMetricRzepecki
0Wins by KO/TKO0
0Wins by Submission0
0First-Round Finishes0
15.67Sig. Strikes / Min0
4.80Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min0
60%Striking Accuracy0%
58%Striking Defense0%
0Knockdown Avg / 15 min0
2Takedowns / 15 min0
100%Takedown Accuracy0%
0%Takedown Defense0%
0Submissions / 15 min0
15:00Avg. Fight Time00:00

Strike Distribution

Zaynukov

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

51%

Body

27%

Leg

22%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Zaynukov

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 95%Standing95%
Clinch — 5%Clinch5%
Ground — 0%Ground0%

Primary Position Standing

Rzepecki

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Balanced

Head

0%

Body

0%

Leg

0%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Rzepecki

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 0%Standing0%
Clinch — 0%Clinch0%
Ground — 0%Ground0%

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

Kalshi

Zaynukov74%
Rzepecki26%

Masses favor Zaynukov · Zaynukov -285 / Rzepecki +285

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Zaynukov

Strengths

  • Elite Muay Thai striking volume (15.67 SLpM)
  • High-level training at Eagles MMA/Nurmagomedov School
  • Two-time IFMA World Champion pedigree

Weaknesses

  • Short reach for the division (68.5 inches)
  • Lacks professional submission victories in MMA
  • Starting UFC career at age 31

Opportunities

  • Exploit Rzepecki's lower volume with constant pressure
  • Utilize high-level clinch work to neutralize Rzepecki's height
  • Dictate where the fight takes place with 100% takedown accuracy

Threats

  • Vulnerable to Rzepecki's 50% submission win rate on the ground
  • Youth and athleticism of a 24-year-old opponent
  • Early finishing instinct of 'The Butcher'
Rzepecki

Strengths

  • High finishing rate (90%) with variety (KO and Sub)
  • Young prospect (24) with a physical 10-0 momentum
  • Strong offensive grappling (5 submission wins)

Weaknesses

  • Stepping up from regional circuit (FEN) to top-tier Dagestani
  • Lower statistical striking volume compared to opponent
  • Unproven cardio in deeper, high-pace rounds

Opportunities

  • Target Zaynukov's body where he has shown vulnerability
  • Use length to keep the Muay Thai specialist at range
  • Capitalize on any grappling scrambles to secure a neck

Threats

  • Being drowned by the 15.67 SLpM output from the start
  • Unable to secure takedowns against an Abdulmanap trainee
  • Losing the technical kickboxing battle at distance

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Zaynukov
Key Advantages
  • World-class Muay Thai striking volume (15.67 SLpM) and 60% accuracy
  • Trains at Eagles MMA/Abdulmanap School with Islam Makhachev
  • Superior high-level combat experience as a multi-time IFMA World Champion
Potential Concerns
  • Significant reach disadvantage (68.5") for a 155lb fighter
  • Lack of submission average (0.0) compared to Rzepecki's 50% submission rate
  • May struggle if Rzepecki forces a high-pace grappling match early
AI Analysis

Elite Muay Thai pedigree vs. a high-finishing European prospect.

Forecast

Zaynukov is expected to take the center of the Octagon and establish his jab and leg kicks immediately. Given his 15.67 SLpM, the volume will likely overwhelm Rzepecki in the first five minutes. Rzepecki will probably look for a clinch or reactive takedown to utilize his submission game, but Zaynukov's training pedigree suggests he will be difficult to hold down. I expect Zaynukov to mitigate the reach concern by closing distance and scoring with heavy combinations. The most likely outcome is a clear unanimous decision for Zaynukov or a late TKO as Rzepecki fades under the striking pressure. Confidence is moderate given both are making official debuts.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

This is a collision of two undefeated prospects with diametrically opposed paths. Magomed Zaynukov produces a statistical anomaly with 15.67 strikes landed per minute, a rate that suggests a relentless, high-pressure Muay Thai style. Rzepecki is a finisher with a 90% finish rate on the regional circuit, including a dangerous body-shot KO and multiple rear-naked chokes. While Rzepecki is 7 years younger and likely the more opportunistic grappler, Zaynukov's pedigree under the Abdulmanap Nurmagomedov school suggests his 100% takedown accuracy (from Contender Series) isn't a fluke. Zaynukov's ability to combine elite kickboxing with Dagestani-style control should pose a puzzle Rzepecki hasn't seen in Poland.

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