Live tonight/ Event ID · 503B9999-AC70-404E-A4E5-22552B17A668

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov

Saturday, July 25, 2026 · Etihad Arena · Abu Dhabi

Main Card12:00 PM EDT

Fights10

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov takes place on Saturday, July 25, 2026 at Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi. Picks Terminal covers 10 bouts on the card with win probabilities, matchup breakdowns and fight intel. Main event: Magomed Ankalaev vs Bogdan Guskov.

Main Event · Light HeavyweightID · 2BD27948-3EA5-4A00-98DE-72549BDD4277

Rank 1 · Light Heavyweight

Magomed Ankalaev

21-2-1 (1 NC) · Combat Sambo

Rank 9 · Light Heavyweight

Bogdan Guskov

"Hitman"

18-3-1 · Boxing

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Ankalaev

79%

Edge58%

Guskov

21%

Skill Comparison

Striking

Wrestling

Cardio

Takedown Defense

Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

AnkalaevMetricGuskov

6'3"Height6'3"

75"Reach76"

34Age33

SouthpawStanceOrthodox

62%Finish Rate100%

Career Records

AnkalaevMetricGuskov

12Wins by KO/TKO4

1Wins by Submission1

6First-Round Finishes13

3.65Sig. Strikes / Min4.57

2.59Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min4.09

52%Striking Accuracy55%

56%Striking Defense44%

0.56Knockdown Avg / 15 min0

0.79Takedowns / 15 min0

22%Takedown Accuracy0%

87%Takedown Defense57%

0Submissions / 15 min0.70

11:49Avg. Fight Time15:00

Strike Distribution

Ankalaev

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

56%

Body

27%

Leg

17%

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing71%

Clinch11%

Ground18%

Primary Position Standing

Guskov

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

43%

Body

25%

Leg

14%

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing84%

Clinch16%

Ground0%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

Kalshi

Ankalaev81%

Guskov19%

Masses favor Ankalaev · Ankalaev -488 / Guskov +426

View source →

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Ankalaev

Key Advantages

87% takedown defense provides near-total immunity to grappling pressure
Superior defensive striking (2.59 SApM vs Guskov's 4.09 SApM)
Proven 5-round cardio and experience against elite contenders

Potential Concerns

Guskov's 100% UFC finish rate and early-round explosiveness
Ankalaev can occasionally be stationary, inviting leg kicks or power shots
Guskov's reach advantage (76") could disrupt Ankalaev's distance management

AI Analysis

Ankalaev's 87% takedown defense and elite counter-striking meet Guskov's 100% finish rate and heavy hands.

Forecast

Ankalaev is expected to utilize a measured, outside-striking approach to weather the inevitable Round 1 storm from Guskov. Given Guskov's tendency to absorb high volume (4.09 SApM) and Ankalaev's accuracy (52%), the former champion will likely pick Guskov apart with counters as the Uzbekistan native tires. While Guskov is a dangerous 'one-punch' threat, he has never faced a counter-striker of Ankalaev's caliber. Expect Ankalaev to find a TKO finish in the second or third round once Guskov's early explosive energy wanes. High confidence in an Ankalaev victory by late stoppage or clear unanimous decision.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

This matchup pits the tactical precision of Magomed Ankalaev against the volatile power of Bogdan Guskov. Statistically, Ankalaev is the far more disciplined defender, absorbing only 2.59 significant strikes per minute compared to Guskov’s 4.09. While Guskov maintains a high striking volume (4.57 SLpM), his 44% striking defense suggests he is willing to take damage to land his own. Ankalaev's Combat Sambo background and 87% takedown defense effectively neutralize any potential grappling threats, forcing a stand-up battle where Ankalaev's southpaw counters typically thrive. Guskov's path to victory relies entirely on his 'Hitman' power, as he boasts an incredible 100% win-by-finish rate in his victories.

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