← UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. GuskovNurullo AlievMike Davis

Nurullo Aliev vs Mike Davis — Lightweight — was scheduled for Saturday, July 25, 2026 at UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov in Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi. Official result not yet recorded. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

slot.Prelim · LightweightID · 78A51B9A-4C7F-4E9E-9841-2777E6222166

Rank Unranked · Lightweight

Nurullo Aliev

"Tajik Eagle"

11-0-0 · Sambo / Wrestling

Rank Unranked · Lightweight

Mike Davis

"Beast Boy"

12-3-0 · Boxing / Wrestling

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Aliev

53%

Edge6%

Davis

47%

Skill Comparison

65
80
Striking
78
79
Wrestling
82
84
Cardio
80
60
Takedown Defense
85
78
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

AlievMetricDavis
5'10"Height6'0"
72"Reach72"
24Age31
OrthodoxStanceOrthodox
27%Finish Rate58%

Career Records

AlievMetricDavis
1Wins by KO/TKO5
2Wins by Submission2
1First-Round Finishes4
2.72Sig. Strikes / Min4.73
1.63Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min5.23
44%Striking Accuracy53%
58%Striking Defense54%
0Knockdown Avg / 15 min0
2.12Takedowns / 15 min2.40
43%Takedown Accuracy44%
80%Takedown Defense60%
0.30Submissions / 15 min0.80
12:24Avg. Fight Time00:00

Strike Distribution

Aliev

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

81%

Body

14%

Leg

4%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Aliev

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 53%Standing53%
Clinch — 6%Clinch6%
Ground — 41%Ground41%

Primary Position Standing

Davis

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Balanced

Head

0%

Body

0%

Leg

0%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Davis

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 0%Standing0%
Clinch — 0%Clinch0%
Ground — 0%Ground0%

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

Kalshi

Aliev66%
Davis34%

Masses favor Aliev · Aliev -194 / Davis +194

View source →

Latest News

Aliev

Strengths

  • Undefeated momentum
  • Elite top control
  • Stifling clinch work

Weaknesses

  • Low striking volume
  • Low finish rate
  • Limited UFC experience

Opportunities

  • Exploit Davis's 60% TD defense
  • Drain Davis in the clinch
  • Use youth/speed advantage

Threats

  • Getting caught in a brawl
  • Davis's superior boxing combos
  • Struggles if he can't get TD
Davis

Strengths

  • High-volume striking
  • Proven cardio in wars
  • Technical boxing variety

Weaknesses

  • High strikes absorbed rate
  • Inconsistent TD defense
  • Long layoff history

Opportunities

  • Keep the fight at range
  • Counter Aliev's entries
  • Test Aliev's gas tank late

Threats

  • Being pinned to the mat
  • Dropping rounds on control
  • Fatigue from defensive wrestling

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Aliev
Key Advantages
  • Aliev's 80% takedown defense ensures he dictates where the fight takes place
  • Davis's 4.73 SLpM provides a significant volume edge over Aliev's 2.72
  • Aliev is 7 years younger with an unblemished 11-0 professional record
Potential Concerns
  • Davis absorbs 5.23 significant strikes per minute, a dangerously high rate
  • Aliev lacks finishing equity with 8 of 11 wins coming by decision
  • Davis's 60% takedown defense may struggle against Aliev's persistent chain wrestling
AI Analysis

Pressure wrestling versus technical high-volume boxing in a clash of elite lightweight prospects.

Forecast

Aliev will likely look to close the distance immediately, utilizing his Sambo background to press Davis into the fence. Expect Davis to win the early exchanges at range with his superior boxing and reach, but Aliev's relentless pressure usually wears opponents down by the second round. If Aliev secures early takedowns, Davis’s 60% TD defense will be the deciding factor in a grueling wrestling match. However, Davis is a veteran of pace and should stay competitive in the scrambles. I forecast a tight, high-intensity decision victory for Aliev based on control time and cage generalship.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

This matchup pits the suffocating wrestling of Nurullo Aliev against the dynamic, high-output striking of Mike Davis. Aliev averages 2.12 takedowns per 15 minutes and relies on top control to win minutes, but he must navigate the striking of Davis, who nearly doubles his output with 4.73 strikes landed per minute. Davis has evolved into a formidable wrestler himself (2.4 TD avg), though his 60% defense suggests he can be grounded. The statistical crux is whether Aliev can minimize the 5.23 strikes Davis usually absorbs to avoid a brawl, or if Davis can exploit Aliev's lower striking accuracy (44%) to dominate the feet.

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