← UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs MalottChad AnheligerSteven Koslow

Chad Anheliger vs Steven KoslowUFC Fight Night: Buckley vs Malott

Chad Anheliger vs Steven Koslow — Bantamweight — is scheduled for Saturday, October 17, 2026 at UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs Malott in Rogers Place, Edmonton. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

Prelims · BantamweightID · 044B7688-6F51-4D35-8597-8D118396BD36
Chad Anheliger

Unranked · Bantamweight

Chad Anheliger

"The Monster"

13-8-0 · Freestyle

Steven Koslow

Unranked · Bantamweight

Steven Koslow

"Obi Won Shinobi The Pillow"

6-1-0 · —

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Anheliger

45%

Edge10%

Koslow

55%

Skill Comparison

76
65
Striking
70
88
Wrestling
77
72
Cardio
38
—
Takedown Defense
73
70
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

AnheligerMetricKoslow
5' 6"Height5' 7.5"
64.5"Reach69"
38Age26
—Stance—
77%Finish Rate100%

Career Records

AnheligerMetricKoslow
7Wins by KO/TKO0
3Wins by Submission6
6First-Round Finishes6
3.11Sig. Strikes / Min0.77
2.76Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min3.73
46%Striking Accuracy38%
54%Striking Defense—
0.51Knockdown Avg / 15 min—
0.68Takedowns / 15 min5.28
0%Takedown Accuracy56%
38%Takedown Defense—
0.51Submissions / 15 min1.06
14:44Avg. Fight Time—

Strike Distribution

Anheliger

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

69%

Body

15%

Leg

16%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Anheliger

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 72%Standing72%
Clinch — 14%Clinch14%
Ground — 15%Ground15%

Primary Position Standing

Koslow

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

73%

Body

9%

Leg

18%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Koslow

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 73%Standing73%
Clinch — 9%Clinch9%
Ground — 18%Ground18%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

Latest News

— No recent news —

Anheliger

Strengths

  • Thirteen professional wins and broad fight experience
  • Only 2.76 significant strikes absorbed per minute
  • Ten finishes across knockouts and submissions

Weaknesses

  • Sample uncertainty can distort rate statistics
  • Can be punished when the preferred phase breaks down

Opportunities

  • Establish the preferred phase early
  • Build repeatable offense rather than chase isolated moments

Threats

  • Steven Koslow changing the fight phase
  • A high-impact momentum swing
Koslow

Strengths

  • Live counter-route against Chad Anheliger
  • Can outperform the model by controlling the preferred phase

Weaknesses

  • Sample uncertainty can distort rate statistics
  • Can be punished when the preferred phase breaks down

Opportunities

  • Establish the preferred phase early
  • Build repeatable offense rather than chase isolated moments

Threats

  • Chad Anheliger changing the fight phase
  • A high-impact momentum swing

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Koslow
Key Advantages
  • Thirteen professional wins and broad fight experience
  • Only 2.76 significant strikes absorbed per minute
  • Ten finishes across knockouts and submissions
Potential Concerns
  • 38% takedown defense
  • Koslow averages 5.28 takedowns per 15 minutes in the available sample
  • Anheliger gives up youth and reach
AI Analysis

Koslow's takedown and submission volume target Anheliger's weakest defensive area, while Anheliger owns the decisive experience edge.

Forecast

Koslow is projected to force enough grappling exchanges to threaten submissions and control time; Anheliger's veteran striking remains a live counter-path.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

Anheliger needs to punish entries and force Koslow to strike at range. Koslow's perfect submission profile and wrestling volume directly attack Anheliger's 38% takedown defense, although Koslow's UFC sample remains limited. That matchup lever earns Koslow a slight edge.

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