← UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs MalottChelsea ChandlerMelissa Croden

Chelsea Chandler vs Melissa CrodenUFC Fight Night: Buckley vs Malott

Chelsea Chandler vs Melissa Croden — Women's Bantamweight — is scheduled for Saturday, October 17, 2026 at UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs Malott in Rogers Place, Edmonton. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

Prelims · Women's BantamweightID · 1F84099C-8F50-4112-81F1-25029E80F05E

Unranked · Women's Bantamweight

Chelsea Chandler

7-4-0 · MMA

Melissa Croden

Rank #14 · Women's Bantamweight

Melissa Croden

"Scare"

8-3-0 · MMA

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Chandler

37%

Edge26%

Croden

63%

Skill Comparison

74

80

Striking

70

82

Wrestling

74

82

Cardio

25

67

Takedown Defense

75

79

Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

ChandlerMetricCroden

5' 8.5"Height5' 9"

68"Reach68.5"

35Age35

—Stance—

57%Finish Rate88%

Career Records

ChandlerMetricCroden

2Wins by KO/TKO6

2Wins by Submission1

3First-Round Finishes1

3.52Sig. Strikes / Min4.27

4.27Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min2.13

45%Striking Accuracy47%

40%Striking Defense59%

0.27Knockdown Avg / 15 min0.34

0.81Takedowns / 15 min2.02

0%Takedown Accuracy17%

25%Takedown Defense67%

0.27Submissions / 15 min0.34

09:15Avg. Fight Time14:51

Strike Distribution

Chandler

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

70%

Body

27%

Leg

3%

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 62%

Standing62%

Clinch — 21%

Clinch21%

Ground — 17%

Ground17%

Primary Position Standing

Croden

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

71%

Body

16%

Leg

13%

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 62%

Standing62%

Clinch — 18%

Clinch18%

Ground — 20%

Ground20%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

Latest News

— No recent news —

Chandler

Strengths

Live counter-route against Melissa Croden
Can outperform the model by controlling the preferred phase

Weaknesses

Sample uncertainty can distort rate statistics
Can be punished when the preferred phase breaks down

Opportunities

Establish the preferred phase early
Build repeatable offense rather than chase isolated moments

Threats

Melissa Croden changing the fight phase
A high-impact momentum swing

Croden

Strengths

Only 2.13 significant strikes absorbed per minute
2.02 takedowns per 15 minutes
Seven finishes in eight professional wins

Weaknesses

Sample uncertainty can distort rate statistics
Can be punished when the preferred phase breaks down

Opportunities

Establish the preferred phase early
Build repeatable offense rather than chase isolated moments

Threats

Chelsea Chandler changing the fight phase
A high-impact momentum swing

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Croden

Key Advantages

Chandler owns meaningful clinch strength
Croden is still building her UFC sample
Chandler can create scrambles if Croden overcommits

Potential Concerns

Only 2.13 significant strikes absorbed per minute
2.02 takedowns per 15 minutes
Seven finishes in eight professional wins

AI Analysis

Croden's defense, takedown volume and finishing record directly attack Chandler's weakest statistical areas.

Forecast

Croden is projected to win both efficiency and control minutes, with Chandler's best route coming through physical clinch exchanges.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

Croden can pressure behind efficient combinations and move into takedowns when Chandler plants to return fire. Chandler's 25% takedown defense and 40% striking defense create repeatable openings. Croden's cleaner defensive profile and phase mix produce one of the card's stronger leans.

Picks Terminal Weekly

A concise NFL and UFC/MMA briefing — Monday previews, Friday updates.

Key matchups, model signals, and the stories worth knowing across both sports. Free, no fluff, one-click unsubscribe.