Joaquin Buckley vs Mike MalottUFC Fight Night: Buckley vs Malott

Joaquin Buckley vs Mike Malott — Welterweight — is scheduled for Saturday, October 17, 2026 at UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs Malott in Rogers Place, Edmonton. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

Main Event · WelterweightID · C6560BDD-0555-4A8F-A6FC-3AB7290FEC50
Joaquin Buckley

Rank #10 · Welterweight

Joaquin Buckley

"New Mansa"

21-8-0 · Freestyle

Mike Malott

Rank #13 · Welterweight

Mike Malott

"Proper"

14-2-1 · MMA

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Buckley

51%

Edge2%

Malott

49%

Skill Comparison

82
81
Striking
74
77
Wrestling
80
78
Cardio
70
57
Takedown Defense
78
77
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

BuckleyMetricMalott
5' 10"Height6' 1"
76"Reach73"
32Age34
—Stance—
71%Finish Rate86%

Career Records

BuckleyMetricMalott
15Wins by KO/TKO6
0Wins by Submission6
4First-Round Finishes9
3.62Sig. Strikes / Min4.02
3.10Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min3.09
36%Striking Accuracy48%
59%Striking Defense56%
0.68Knockdown Avg / 15 min0.82
1.43Takedowns / 15 min1.63
17%Takedown Accuracy0%
70%Takedown Defense57%
0.08Submissions / 15 min0.65
11:45Avg. Fight Time09:12

Strike Distribution

Buckley

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

62%

Body

28%

Leg

10%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Buckley

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 75%Standing75%
Clinch — 6%Clinch6%
Ground — 19%Ground19%

Primary Position Standing

Malott

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

64%

Body

19%

Leg

17%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Malott

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 81%Standing81%
Clinch — 4%Clinch4%
Ground — 15%Ground15%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

Latest News

— No recent news —

Buckley

Strengths

  • Buckley owns fifteen knockout wins and a 76-inch reach
  • 70% takedown defense limits Malott's easiest phase change
  • Buckley has the deeper sample in extended high-level fights

Weaknesses

  • Sample uncertainty can distort rate statistics
  • Can be punished when the preferred phase breaks down

Opportunities

  • Establish the preferred phase early
  • Build repeatable offense rather than chase isolated moments

Threats

  • Mike Malott changing the fight phase
  • A high-impact momentum swing
Malott

Strengths

  • Live counter-route against Joaquin Buckley
  • Can outperform the model by controlling the preferred phase

Weaknesses

  • Sample uncertainty can distort rate statistics
  • Can be punished when the preferred phase breaks down

Opportunities

  • Establish the preferred phase early
  • Build repeatable offense rather than chase isolated moments

Threats

  • Joaquin Buckley changing the fight phase
  • A high-impact momentum swing

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Buckley
Key Advantages
  • Buckley owns fifteen knockout wins and a 76-inch reach
  • 70% takedown defense limits Malott's easiest phase change
  • Buckley has the deeper sample in extended high-level fights
Potential Concerns
  • Malott lands more accurately and absorbs slightly less
  • Malott owns twelve career finishes across knockouts and submissions
  • Buckley enters after consecutive losses
AI Analysis

Buckley's explosive power and defensive wrestling narrowly offset Malott's cleaner accuracy and submission threat.

Forecast

Buckley is projected to create the more damaging moments in a competitive fight where Malott's efficiency keeps the score close.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

Buckley should pressure behind explosive entries without overextending into Malott's clinch and submission game. Malott can win measured minutes with cleaner combinations and opportunistic grappling, but Buckley's reach, power and defensive wrestling give him the smallest of edges across five rounds.

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