← UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs MalottKatlyn CerminaraMackenzie Stiller

Katlyn Cerminara vs Mackenzie StillerUFC Fight Night: Buckley vs Malott

Katlyn Cerminara vs Mackenzie Stiller — Women's Flyweight — is scheduled for Saturday, October 17, 2026 at UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs Malott in Rogers Place, Edmonton. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

Prelims · Women's FlyweightID · D35D311E-FE15-4363-9EE7-71FE9F8B1F7A
Katlyn Cerminara

Unranked · Women's Flyweight

Katlyn Cerminara

"Blonde Fighter"

18-6-0 · MMA

Unranked · Women's Flyweight

Mackenzie Stiller

"Mack-Judo"

6-1-0 · Judo

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Cerminara

63%

Edge26%

Stiller

37%

Skill Comparison

78
72
Striking
68
82
Wrestling
84
73
Cardio
50
—
Takedown Defense
79
72
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

CerminaraMetricStiller
5' 9"Height—
68"Reach—
36Age27
—Stance—
17%Finish Rate—

Career Records

CerminaraMetricStiller
2Wins by KO/TKO—
1Wins by Submission—
2First-Round Finishes—
4.58Sig. Strikes / Min—
4.48Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min—
35%Striking Accuracy—
62%Striking Defense—
0.06Knockdown Avg / 15 min—
0.31Takedowns / 15 min—
0%Takedown Accuracy—
50%Takedown Defense—
0.31Submissions / 15 min—
14:10Avg. Fight Time—

Strike Distribution

Cerminara

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

61%

Body

24%

Leg

14%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Cerminara

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 87%Standing87%
Clinch — 8%Clinch8%
Ground — 5%Ground5%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

Latest News

Cerminara

Strengths

  • Eighteen professional wins and former title-challenger experience
  • 62% striking defense
  • Proven ability to sustain fifteen-minute volume

Weaknesses

  • Sample uncertainty can distort rate statistics
  • Can be punished when the preferred phase breaks down

Opportunities

  • Establish the preferred phase early
  • Build repeatable offense rather than chase isolated moments

Threats

  • Mackenzie Stiller changing the fight phase
  • A high-impact momentum swing
Stiller

Strengths

  • Live counter-route against Katlyn Cerminara
  • Can outperform the model by controlling the preferred phase

Weaknesses

  • Sample uncertainty can distort rate statistics
  • Can be punished when the preferred phase breaks down

Opportunities

  • Establish the preferred phase early
  • Build repeatable offense rather than chase isolated moments

Threats

  • Katlyn Cerminara changing the fight phase
  • A high-impact momentum swing

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Cerminara
Key Advantages
  • Eighteen professional wins and former title-challenger experience
  • 62% striking defense
  • Proven ability to sustain fifteen-minute volume
Potential Concerns
  • Cerminara has not fought since March 2024
  • Stiller's judo can punish predictable clinch entries
  • Stiller is nine years younger
AI Analysis

Cerminara's elite-level UFC experience and distance management outweigh Stiller's judo route, though the layoff and replacement timing add uncertainty.

Forecast

Cerminara is projected to win measured minutes at range, with Stiller's clinch throws representing the main source of upset variance.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

Cerminara should keep the fight long, touch from range and deny Stiller extended clinch control. Stiller replaced Jamey-Lyn Horth and has no landed UFC sample, but her judo creates a clear upset path if she can close distance. Experience and distance management keep Cerminara favored.

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