Kyle Daukaus vs Marc-Andre BarriaultUFC Fight Night: Buckley vs Malott

Kyle Daukaus vs Marc-Andre Barriault — Middleweight — is scheduled for Saturday, October 17, 2026 at UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs Malott in Rogers Place, Edmonton. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

Main Card · MiddleweightID · 657E535B-29F3-4EA8-97A4-523FC352C4AB
Kyle Daukaus

Unranked · Middleweight

Kyle Daukaus

17-4-0 · —

Marc-Andre Barriault

Unranked · Middleweight

Marc-Andre Barriault

"Powerbar"

17-11-0 · Striker

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Daukaus

57%

Edge14%

Barriault

43%

Skill Comparison

70
78
Striking
88
66
Wrestling
77
80
Cardio
79
68
Takedown Defense
76
73
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

DaukausMetricBarriault
6' 3"Height6' 1"
76"Reach74"
33Age36
—Stance—
82%Finish Rate71%

Career Records

DaukausMetricBarriault
2Wins by KO/TKO11
12Wins by Submission1
8First-Round Finishes7
3.16Sig. Strikes / Min5.65
2.94Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min5.94
53%Striking Accuracy47%
42%Striking Defense49%
0.36Knockdown Avg / 15 min0.34
1.97Takedowns / 15 min0.34
21%Takedown Accuracy7%
79%Takedown Defense68%
1.97Submissions / 15 min0.09
07:37Avg. Fight Time10:21

Strike Distribution

Daukaus

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

73%

Body

15%

Leg

11%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Daukaus

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 63%Standing63%
Clinch — 13%Clinch13%
Ground — 24%Ground24%

Primary Position Standing

Barriault

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

72%

Body

20%

Leg

8%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Barriault

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 65%Standing65%
Clinch — 28%Clinch28%
Ground — 7%Ground7%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

Latest News

— No recent news —

Daukaus

Strengths

  • Live counter-route against Marc-Andre Barriault
  • Can outperform the model by controlling the preferred phase

Weaknesses

  • Sample uncertainty can distort rate statistics
  • Can be punished when the preferred phase breaks down

Opportunities

  • Establish the preferred phase early
  • Build repeatable offense rather than chase isolated moments

Threats

  • Marc-Andre Barriault changing the fight phase
  • A high-impact momentum swing
Barriault

Strengths

  • Barriault lands 5.65 significant strikes per minute
  • Eleven knockout wins make prolonged pocket exchanges dangerous
  • Barriault's clinch pressure can disrupt clean grappling entries

Weaknesses

  • Sample uncertainty can distort rate statistics
  • Can be punished when the preferred phase breaks down

Opportunities

  • Establish the preferred phase early
  • Build repeatable offense rather than chase isolated moments

Threats

  • Kyle Daukaus changing the fight phase
  • A high-impact momentum swing

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Daukaus
Key Advantages
  • Daukaus owns twelve submission wins
  • Barriault absorbs 5.94 significant strikes per minute
  • Daukaus has height, reach and takedown-defense advantages
Potential Concerns
  • Barriault lands 5.65 significant strikes per minute
  • Eleven knockout wins make prolonged pocket exchanges dangerous
  • Barriault's clinch pressure can disrupt clean grappling entries
AI Analysis

Daukaus's submission volume, lower absorption and defensive wrestling are strong answers to Barriault's pressure boxing.

Forecast

Daukaus is projected to create enough grappling control and submission danger to offset Barriault's higher striking volume.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

Barriault must crowd Daukaus before the taller fighter can settle into clean entries and front-headlock sequences. Daukaus can reduce the striking volume by changing levels and forcing scrambles, where his submission depth is most valuable. The defensive and grappling numbers favor Daukaus despite Barriault's pressure.

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