Chase Hooper vs Mitch Ramirez — UFC Fight Night: du Plessis vs. Usman

← UFC Fight Night: du Plessis vs. UsmanChase HooperMitch Ramirez

Chase Hooper vs Mitch Ramirez — Lightweight — was scheduled for Saturday, July 18, 2026 at UFC Fight Night: du Plessis vs. Usman in Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. Official result not yet recorded. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

Main Card · LightweightID · BE520E5C-7BFF-49D4-95E6-268AA2611967

Rank Unranked · Lightweight

Chase Hooper

"The Dream"

16-5-1 · Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu

Rank Unranked · Lightweight

Mitch Ramirez

"The Kill Switch"

20-5-0 · MMA

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Hooper

78%

Edge56%

Ramirez

22%

Skill Comparison

Striking

Wrestling

Cardio

Takedown Defense

Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

HooperMetricRamirez

6'1"Height5'11"

74"Reach71"

26Age33

SouthpawStanceOrthodox

69%Finish Rate75%

Career Records

HooperMetricRamirez

4Wins by KO/TKO10

7Wins by Submission5

4.50Sig. Strikes / Min4.50

3.02Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min3.20

49%Striking Accuracy50%

39%Striking Defense60%

2.43Takedowns / 15 min1.50

32%Takedown Accuracy40%

55%Takedown Defense65%

2.10Submissions / 15 min0.80

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

Kalshi

Hooper76%

Ramirez24%

Masses favor Hooper · Hooper -317 / Ramirez +317

View source →

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Hooper

Key Advantages

Height and reach edge (6'1" / 74in vs 5'11" / 71in)
Elite submission volume (2.1 avg subs per 15 min)
High striking output (4.5 SLpM) creates entry windows
Significant experience gap despite younger age

Potential Concerns

Averaging 3.02 significant strikes absorbed per minute
39% striking defense leaves openings for Ramirez's power
Susceptibility to heavy hitters (3 career KO losses)

AI Analysis

Hooper's massive size and submission volume vs. Ramirez's suspect 25% takedown defense.

Forecast

Hooper will likely establish his range early using his southpaw jab and front kicks to exploit Ramirez’s 37% striking defense. Expect Hooper to initiate a clinch within the first three minutes, easily finding a trip or body lock against Ramirez’s porous 25% takedown defense. Once the fight hits the floor, Hooper’s elite Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu will create a massive skill gap. Ramirez tends to give up his back under pressure, which aligns with Hooper's preference for rear-naked chokes. I forecast a dominant first or second-round submission victory for Chase Hooper. Confidence is high given the specific stylistic mismatch on the mat.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

This matchup centers on a glaring statistical discrepancy in the grappling department. Mitch Ramirez enters with an alarming 25% takedown defense and a 0% takedown accuracy, suggesting a heavy reliance on his 63% KO/TKO win rate. Chase Hooper, who has successfully transitioned to lightweight, brings a high-pressure 2.43 TD average and constant submission threats (2.1 per 15 min). While Ramirez attempted to right the ship against Mike Davis, his strike absorption (3.98 SApM) and low defensive metrics (37% strike def) play directly into Hooper's improved volume striking. Hooper's 4.5 SLpM should allow him to dictate the distance before initiating clinches where Ramirez has struggled historically.

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