← UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs TorresDaniil DonchenkoTheodor Berggren

Daniil Donchenko vs Theodor BerggrenUFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs Torres

Daniil Donchenko vs Theodor Berggren — Welterweight — was scheduled for Saturday, June 27, 2026 at UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs Torres in National Gymnastics Arena, Baku. Official result not yet recorded. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

slot.Prelim · WelterweightID · DA8285D2-75D7-44AF-9979-3E1175D9860C

Unranked · Welterweight

Daniil Donchenko

15-2-0 · Kickboxer

Unranked · Welterweight

Theodor Berggren

8-4-0 · MMA

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Donchenko

38%

Edge24%

Berggren

62%

Skill Comparison

Striking

Wrestling

Cardio

Takedown Defense

Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

DonchenkoMetricBerggren

5' 11"Height6' 0"

71"Reach—

25Age26

—Stance—

80%Finish Rate100%

Career Records

DonchenkoMetricBerggren

10Wins by KO/TKO5

2Wins by Submission3

5First-Round Finishes6

8.07Sig. Strikes / Min3.49

2.80Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min10.78

—Striking Accuracy36%

70%Striking Defense34%

0.58Knockdown Avg / 15 min0

—Takedowns / 15 min0

75%Takedown Defense—

0Submissions / 15 min0

08:41Avg. Fight Time06:35

Strike Distribution

Donchenko

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

43%

Body

26%

Leg

31%

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing79%

Clinch11%

Ground10%

Primary Position Standing

Berggren

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

65%

Body

30%

Leg

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing87%

Clinch13%

Ground0%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Berggren

Key Advantages

Donchenko's pure striking speed and 60% accuracy
Hernandez's elite submission versatility (9 career subs)
Hernandez's generational cardio and pace

Potential Concerns

Donchenko's relative lack of experience at Middleweight (moving up from Welterweight)
Hernandez's susceptibility to early power (2 KO losses)
Donchenko's 33% takedown accuracy

AI Analysis

A classic striker-versus-grappler clash where Donchenko's early-round explosiveness meets Hernandez's relentless pace and submission chain-wrestling.

Forecast

This AI forecast predicts a fight defined by a high-intensity pace where momentum shifts after the opening frame. Round 1 will likely see Donchenko control the center, utilizing his superior Muay Thai to land heavy leg kicks and straight shots while stuffing initial shot attempts. However, Hernandez is notorious for absorbing damage to initiate grappling, and by the second round, his pace will likely begin to wilt the smaller Donchenko. The most probable outcome is the fight moving into the clinch and onto the mat, where Hernandez's superior BJJ and 75-inch reach will facilitate a transition to the back. Look for Anthony Hernandez to secure a submission victory, likely via rear-naked choke, midway through Round 2 or 3. This prediction is made with moderate confidence based on the significant cardio and weight-class experience gap. This is an AI forecast, not a guarantee.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

This matchup pits TUF 33 winner Daniil Donchenko against the high-octane pressure of Anthony Hernandez. Donchenko is a technical specialist with a high knockdown average (1.54) and elite defensive striking metrics. However, he is moving up from Welterweight to face a top-10 Middleweight in Hernandez. Hernandez thrives on volume and a grueling 'grind-house' style that exhausts opponents. While Donchenko has the power to catch Hernandez early—as seen in Hernandez’s previous losses—the reach and size advantage belongs to the American. If Donchenko cannot secure a stoppage in the first seven minutes, the momentum historically shifts heavily toward Hernandez's relentless wrestling and clinch work.

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