← UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs RodriguesAnthony HernandezGregory Rodrigues

Anthony Hernandez vs Gregory RodriguesUFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs Rodrigues

Anthony Hernandez vs Gregory Rodrigues — Middleweight — was scheduled for Saturday, August 22, 2026 at UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs Rodrigues in Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, CA. Official result not yet recorded. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

Main Event · MiddleweightID · C9C74093-3E6E-441A-9579-4F61AA916B16

Rank #6 · Middleweight

Anthony Hernandez

"Fluffy"

15-3-0 · Striker

Gregory Rodrigues

Rank #11 · Middleweight

Gregory Rodrigues

"Robocop"

19-6-0 · Grappler

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Hernandez

58%

Edge16%

Rodrigues

42%

Skill Comparison

80
84
Striking
91
70
Wrestling
86
78
Cardio
76
81
Takedown Defense
78
74
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

HernandezMetricRodrigues
6' 0"Height6' 3"
75"Reach75"
32Age34
OrthodoxStanceOrthodox
80%Finish Rate79%

Career Records

HernandezMetricRodrigues
3Wins by KO/TKO12
9Wins by Submission3
5First-Round Finishes9
4.57Sig. Strikes / Min5.53
3.10Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min4.78
60%Striking Accuracy51%
51%Striking Defense50%
0.11Knockdown Avg / 15 min1.01
5.88Takedowns / 15 min1.90
48%Takedown Accuracy34%
68%Takedown Defense75%
1.60Submissions / 15 min0.40
10:36Avg. Fight Time08:28

Strike Distribution

Hernandez

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

81%

Body

12%

Leg

7%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Hernandez

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 49%Standing49%
Clinch — 12%Clinch12%
Ground — 39%Ground39%

Primary Position Standing

Rodrigues

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

74%

Body

21%

Leg

5%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Rodrigues

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 84%Standing84%
Clinch — 10%Clinch10%
Ground — 6%Ground6%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

Hernandez61%
Rodrigues39%

Public sentiment favors Hernandez

Aggregated public sentiment, shown as analytics context only. Not odds and not betting advice. 18+.

Latest News

— No recent news —

Hernandez

Strengths

  • 5.88 TD/15 and 1.6 sub attempts/15
  • 60% striking accuracy
  • Lower 3.10 SApM

Weaknesses

  • Coming off a TKO loss
  • 51% striking defense
  • Entry risk against heavy counters

Opportunities

  • Chain wrestle against the fence
  • Accumulate top pressure over five rounds

Threats

  • Rodrigues' 75% TDD
  • 5.53 SLpM and 1.01 KD/15
Rodrigues

Strengths

  • 12 career KOs
  • 5.53 SLpM
  • 75% takedown defense

Weaknesses

  • Absorbs 4.78 SLpM
  • 50% striking defense
  • 34% takedown accuracy

Opportunities

  • Punish level changes
  • Keep exchanges in open space

Threats

  • Relentless chain wrestling
  • Long grappling sequences

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Hernandez
Key Advantages
  • Hernandez lands 5.88 takedowns per 15 minutes at 48% accuracy.
  • Hernandez absorbs 3.10 significant strikes per minute versus Rodrigues' 4.78.
  • Rodrigues lands 5.53 significant strikes per minute and averages 1.01 knockdowns per 15.
Potential Concerns
  • Rodrigues' 75% takedown defense directly tests Hernandez's primary path.
  • Hernandez was stopped by Sean Strickland in February 2026.
  • Long pocket exchanges favor Rodrigues' 12-career-KO power profile.
AI Analysis

Hernandez has the more repeatable control route through elite takedown volume, while Rodrigues carries the larger one-shot striking threat.

Forecast

Expect Hernandez to pressure behind level changes and force extended clinch/wrestling exchanges. Rodrigues should be most dangerous in the first half when his counters and uppercuts can punish those entries. If Hernandez establishes repeated takedowns, the pace should increasingly favor him over five rounds. Hernandez by decision or late submission is the most coherent route, with Rodrigues' knockout threat keeping confidence moderate.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

The fight is shaped by whether Hernandez can force repeat grappling cycles without paying heavily on entry. His 5.88 takedowns per 15 and 1.6 submission attempts create a higher-volume control game than Rodrigues typically produces, and Hernandez owns the cleaner defensive striking baseline. Rodrigues counters with 5.53 SLpM, 12 career knockouts and 75% takedown defense, so early failed shots would quickly shift the matchup toward him. If Hernandez gets Rodrigues defending along the fence, accumulation of mat returns and top pressure should become more important as the fight extends. The model gives Hernandez a modest advantage because Rodrigues has a credible finish route at every entry.

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