← UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs RodriguesCarli JudiceJeisla Chaves

Carli Judice vs Jeisla ChavesUFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs Rodrigues

Carli Judice vs Jeisla Chaves — Women's Strawweight — was scheduled for Saturday, August 22, 2026 at UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs Rodrigues in Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, CA. Official result not yet recorded. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

Main Card · Women's StrawweightID · 5E143F1C-4B71-41FB-A512-DF09CB518CD7
Carli Judice

Rank NR · Women's Strawweight

Carli Judice

"Crispy"

6-2-0 · Striker

Rank NR · Women's Strawweight

Jeisla Chaves

"A Braba"

8-0-0 · Striker

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Judice

60%

Edge20%

Chaves

40%

Skill Comparison

92
82
Striking
55
66
Wrestling
85
86
Cardio
85
72
Takedown Defense
88
90
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

JudiceMetricChaves
5' 7"Height5' 6"
68"Reach68"
27Age29
SouthpawStanceOrthodox
83%Finish Rate50%

Career Records

JudiceMetricChaves
5Wins by KO/TKO4
0Wins by Submission0
4First-Round Finishes3
9.32Sig. Strikes / Min4.97
6.62Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min4.20
50%Striking Accuracy56%
57%Striking Defense54%
0.52Knockdown Avg / 15 min0
0.52Takedowns / 15 min1.50
25%Takedown Accuracy38%
81%Takedown Defense63%
0Submissions / 15 min0.50
11:38Avg. Fight Time15:00

Strike Distribution

Judice

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

64%

Body

30%

Leg

6%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Judice

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 86%Standing86%
Clinch — 13%Clinch13%
Ground — 1%Ground1%

Primary Position Standing

Chaves

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

56%

Body

33%

Leg

11%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Chaves

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 76%Standing76%
Clinch — 15%Clinch15%
Ground — 9%Ground9%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

Latest News

— No recent news —

Judice

Strengths

  • 9.32 SLpM
  • Five KO wins
  • 81% TDD

Weaknesses

  • 6.62 SApM
  • High-output style creates openings
  • Young UFC sample

Opportunities

  • Force prolonged striking exchanges
  • Pressure Chaves backward

Threats

  • Clinch/takedown changes
  • Undefeated opponent
Chaves

Strengths

  • 8-0 record
  • ~56% strike accuracy
  • 1.50 TD/15

Weaknesses

  • One-fight UFC sample
  • 63% TDD
  • Lower 4.97 SLpM

Opportunities

  • Break Judice's rhythm
  • Attack after combinations

Threats

  • Judice's 9.32 SLpM
  • Five-KO threat

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Judice
Key Advantages
  • Judice lands 9.32 SLpM and owns five KO wins.
  • Judice defends 81% of takedowns.
  • Chaves is 8-0 and lands at roughly 56% accuracy in her current UFC sample.
Potential Concerns
  • Judice absorbs 6.62 SLpM.
  • Chaves' UFC sample is only one bout, limiting confidence.
  • Chaves averages 1.50 takedowns per 15 and can change rhythm with clinch work.
AI Analysis

Judice's exceptional output and finishing power give her the model advantage, while Chaves' undefeated record and cleaner absorbed-strike rate keep the matchup competitive.

Forecast

Judice should push a fast striking pace and make Chaves defend combinations rather than isolated shots. Chaves will benefit from breaking rhythm with clinches and level changes. If the fight remains mostly at range, Judice's volume should be the more consistent damage source. Judice by decision or late stoppage is the leading projection.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

Judice is one of the highest-volume strikers on the card, landing 9.32 significant strikes per minute with five knockouts in six professional wins. That output is paired with 81% takedown defense, making it harder for Chaves to simply slow the fight through grappling. Chaves is undefeated, has shown roughly 56% striking accuracy in her current UFC sample and absorbs considerably less volume per minute, but her sample at UFC level is extremely small. The model favors Judice because her pace and UFC finishing threat are more established. Chaves' path is to make the fight less linear through clinch pressure and timely takedowns.

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