← UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs RodriguesElise ReedShanelle Dyer

Elise Reed vs Shanelle DyerUFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs Rodrigues

Elise Reed vs Shanelle Dyer — Women's Strawweight — was scheduled for Saturday, August 22, 2026 at UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs Rodrigues in Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, CA. Official result not yet recorded. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

slot.Prelim · Women's StrawweightID · 148A90D8-5962-4A6B-ADEC-13408B718C7B
Elise Reed

Rank NR · Women's Strawweight

Elise Reed

8-5-0 · Striker

Shanelle Dyer

Rank NR · Women's Strawweight

Shanelle Dyer

"The Nightmare"

7-1-0 · Muay Thai

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Reed

37%

Edge26%

Dyer

63%

Skill Comparison

72
88
Striking
55
52
Wrestling
81
80
Cardio
65
90
Takedown Defense
68
87
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

ReedMetricDyer
5' 3"Height5' 6"
63"Reach65"
32Age24
OrthodoxStanceOrthodox
25%Finish Rate71%

Career Records

ReedMetricDyer
2Wins by KO/TKO5
0Wins by Submission0
1First-Round Finishes3
3.41Sig. Strikes / Min7.71
3.26Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min6.72
53%Striking Accuracy47%
51%Striking Defense51%
0.15Knockdown Avg / 15 min0
0.46Takedowns / 15 min0.70
60%Takedown Accuracy8%
53%Takedown Defense100%
0Submissions / 15 min0
10:50Avg. Fight Time10:39

Strike Distribution

Reed

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

56%

Body

23%

Leg

21%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Reed

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 84%Standing84%
Clinch — 12%Clinch12%
Ground — 4%Ground4%

Primary Position Standing

Dyer

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

51%

Body

30%

Leg

19%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Dyer

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 87%Standing87%
Clinch — 9%Clinch9%
Ground — 4%Ground4%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

Latest News

— No recent news —

Reed

Strengths

  • 3.26 SApM
  • Greater UFC experience
  • 53% TDD

Weaknesses

  • 25% finish rate
  • Multiple UFC stoppage losses
  • Lower 3.41 SLpM

Opportunities

  • Extend fight and slow pace
  • Counter aggression

Threats

  • Dyer's 7.71 SLpM
  • Five-KO profile
Dyer

Strengths

  • 7.71 SLpM
  • Five KO wins
  • 24 years old

Weaknesses

  • 6.72 SApM
  • Tiny UFC sample
  • 100% TDD not proven over depth

Opportunities

  • Set a high pace
  • Exploit prior stoppage losses

Threats

  • Veteran composure
  • Longer-fight experience

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Dyer
Key Advantages
  • Dyer lands 7.71 SLpM versus Reed's 3.41.
  • Dyer has five knockout wins in seven professional victories.
  • Dyer is eight years younger and owns the higher finishing rate.
Potential Concerns
  • Dyer absorbs 6.72 SLpM.
  • Her 100% takedown-defense figure comes from a tiny UFC sample.
  • Reed has considerably more UFC experience and absorbs only 3.26 SLpM.
AI Analysis

Dyer's pace, youth and power create the stronger offensive profile, while Reed's experience and lower absorbed-strike rate are her main stabilizers.

Forecast

Dyer should take the center early and force Reed to work at a faster pace than she prefers. Reed's best route is to stay compact, make Dyer miss and extend the fight into later rounds. If Dyer maintains pressure without overextending, her power and volume should create the cleaner damage. Dyer by decision or mid-to-late stoppage is the leading projection.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

Dyer's offensive pace is the central matchup feature: 7.71 SLpM and five knockout wins give her volume and finishing power Reed has not historically matched. Reed's advantages are experience, a cleaner 3.26 SApM baseline and the ability to stay structured through longer fights. The concern for Reed is that her 25% career finish rate gives Dyer more freedom to press forward, while Reed has been stopped by strikes multiple times in UFC competition. Dyer's defensive numbers remain highly sample-sensitive after a single UFC appearance, so the model avoids an extreme probability. The combination of age, pace and power still gives Dyer the clearer winning profile.

Picks Terminal Weekly

A tactical UFC briefing — Monday previews, Friday updates.

Every Monday: the full card preview, key matchups, and the model's forecast. Every Friday: fresh updates as fight night approaches. Free, no fluff, one-click unsubscribe.