← UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs RodriguesGauge YoungKody Steele

Gauge Young vs Kody SteeleUFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs Rodrigues

Gauge Young vs Kody Steele — Lightweight — was scheduled for Saturday, August 22, 2026 at UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs Rodrigues in Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, CA. Official result not yet recorded. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

slot.Prelim · LightweightID · D8439E4D-4D3A-4D05-B849-5544C46E6208
Gauge Young

Rank NR · Lightweight

Gauge Young

"Gee Money"

11-3-0 · MMA

Kody Steele

Rank NR · Lightweight

Kody Steele

8-1-0 · Jiu-Jitsu

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Young

56%

Edge12%

Steele

44%

Skill Comparison

85
65
Striking
58
64
Wrestling
84
74
Cardio
82
92
Takedown Defense
82
75
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

YoungMetricSteele
5' 9"Height5' 9"
70"Reach71"
25Age31
OrthodoxStanceOrthodox
64%Finish Rate75%

Career Records

YoungMetricSteele
6Wins by KO/TKO4
1Wins by Submission2
5First-Round Finishes2
6.32Sig. Strikes / Min3.85
5.12Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min6.20
52%Striking Accuracy33%
49%Striking Defense52%
0.25Knockdown Avg / 15 min0.53
0.75Takedowns / 15 min1.07
30%Takedown Accuracy13%
77%Takedown Defense100%
0Submissions / 15 min0.53
15:00Avg. Fight Time09:21

Strike Distribution

Young

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

52%

Body

27%

Leg

21%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Young

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 94%Standing94%
Clinch — 4%Clinch4%
Ground — 2%Ground2%

Primary Position Standing

Steele

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

74%

Body

22%

Leg

4%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Steele

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 97%Standing97%
Clinch — 2%Clinch2%
Ground — 1%Ground1%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

Latest News

— No recent news —

Young

Strengths

  • 6.32 SLpM
  • 52% striking accuracy
  • 15:00 average fight time

Weaknesses

  • 5.12 SApM
  • Limited UFC sample
  • Submission exposure

Opportunities

  • Keep kickboxing range
  • Win minutes with volume

Threats

  • Steele's heel-hook game
  • Back-taking transitions
Steele

Strengths

  • Black-belt jiu-jitsu
  • Recent heel-hook finish
  • 100% UFC TDD in small sample

Weaknesses

  • 3.85 SLpM
  • 6.20 SApM
  • Limited UFC sample

Opportunities

  • Force scrambles
  • Attack legs in transition

Threats

  • Young's 6.32 SLpM
  • Young's 77% TDD

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Young
Key Advantages
  • Young lands 6.32 SLpM at roughly 52% accuracy.
  • Steele absorbs 6.20 significant strikes per minute across a small UFC sample.
  • Steele brings black-belt jiu-jitsu and a recent heel-hook submission.
Potential Concerns
  • Young absorbs 5.12 SLpM, so his pace comes with defensive exposure.
  • Steele's 100% TDD is based on a very small UFC sample.
  • Both fighters' UFC samples remain limited.
AI Analysis

Young's output and efficiency are the cleaner baseline, while Steele's black-belt submission game is the matchup's highest-variance route.

Forecast

Young should maintain a high-volume kickboxing pace and force Steele to shoot or clinch from farther away. Steele's best route is to turn an exchange into a scramble and attack the legs or back before Young can reset. Over three rounds, Young's volume is the more repeatable route if he stays disciplined. Young by decision is the leading projection, with Steele submission the clearest alternative.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

Young has the clearer statistical striking profile: 6.32 SLpM, roughly 52% accuracy and a 15-minute average fight time. Steele's UFC sample shows lower output and much higher absorbed volume, but his black-belt grappling creates a qualitatively different danger that raw striking rates do not capture. Young has defended 77% of takedowns, while Steele's heel-hook win over Dom Mar Fan shows he does not need prolonged top control to create a finish. The model favors Young's minute-winning pace but stays relatively tight because one grappling exchange can change the matchup.

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