← UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs RodriguesJackson McVeyWes Schultz

Jackson McVey vs Wes SchultzUFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs Rodrigues

Jackson McVey vs Wes Schultz — Middleweight — was scheduled for Saturday, August 22, 2026 at UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs Rodrigues in Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, CA. Official result not yet recorded. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

slot.Prelim · MiddleweightID · 673E967A-E778-42DC-91E1-0602F4B7346E

Rank NR · Middleweight

Jackson McVey

"The Moose"

7-2-0 · Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu

Rank NR · Middleweight

Wes Schultz

"Party Time"

9-3-0 · MMA

Win Probability Model · v4.2

McVey

46%

Edge8%

Schultz

54%

Skill Comparison

82
65
Striking
50
76
Wrestling
67
75
Cardio
50
50
Takedown Defense
78
65
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

McVeyMetricSchultz
6' 4"Height6' 2"
77"Reach77"
27Age29
SouthpawStanceOrthodox
100%Finish Rate89%

Career Records

McVeyMetricSchultz
3Wins by KO/TKO2
4Wins by Submission6
7First-Round Finishes6
6.51Sig. Strikes / Min2.91
3.37Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min3.11
69%Striking Accuracy47%
24%Striking Defense43%
1.20Knockdown Avg / 15 min1.20
0Takedowns / 15 min2.39
0%Takedown Accuracy—
1.20Submissions / 15 min3.59
04:09Avg. Fight Time06:17

Strike Distribution

McVey

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

58%

Body

41%

Leg

1%
Sig. Strikes by Target — McVey

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 19%Standing19%
Clinch — 64%Clinch64%
Ground — 17%Ground17%

Primary Position Clinch

Schultz

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

47%

Body

37%

Leg

16%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Schultz

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 71%Standing71%
Clinch — 23%Clinch23%
Ground — 5%Ground5%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

Latest News

— No recent news —

McVey

Strengths

  • Seven wins, seven finishes
  • 6.51 SLpM
  • 1.20 KD/15

Weaknesses

  • 24% striking defense
  • Two submission losses
  • Tiny UFC sample

Opportunities

  • Explode in early clinch exchanges
  • Punish before wrestling settles

Threats

  • Schultz submission volume
  • Extended wrestling fatigue
Schultz

Strengths

  • 2.39 TD/15
  • 3.59 sub attempts/15
  • Strong wrestling background

Weaknesses

  • 43% striking defense
  • Can be hurt early
  • Small UFC sample

Opportunities

  • Extend grappling sequences
  • Make McVey defend after round one

Threats

  • Early finishing burst
  • 6.51 SLpM

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Schultz
Key Advantages
  • Schultz averages 2.39 takedowns and 3.59 submission attempts per 15.
  • McVey has finished all seven professional wins.
  • McVey's current sample shows 6.51 SLpM but only 24% striking defense.
Potential Concerns
  • Schultz's current striking defense is only 43%.
  • McVey's 6.51 SLpM and 1.20 knockdowns per 15 create early danger.
  • Both fighters have small UFC samples.
AI Analysis

Schultz's wrestling and submission volume give him a slight model advantage against McVey's explosive but still small-sample finishing profile.

Forecast

McVey is likely to be most dangerous early, especially from the clinch. Schultz should look to survive that first burst, connect his wrestling and extend the fight into layered submission sequences. If Schultz can force McVey to defend multiple phases rather than attack first, his experience in prolonged grappling should matter. Schultz by submission or close decision is the leading projection, with low-to-moderate confidence.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

Schultz has the more established wrestling base and produces 2.39 takedowns plus 3.59 submission attempts per 15 in the current UFC data. McVey is far more explosive: every professional win is a finish, and his small sample shows 6.51 SLpM and 1.20 knockdowns per 15. The trade-off is defense, where McVey's current 24% significant-strike defense and prior submission losses create openings in extended exchanges. Schultz's own 43% striking defense prevents a wide model advantage. The result is a narrow lean toward the more repeatable grappling pathway.

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