← UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs RodriguesMarQuel MederosMason Jones

MarQuel Mederos vs Mason JonesUFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs Rodrigues

MarQuel Mederos vs Mason Jones — Lightweight — was scheduled for Saturday, August 22, 2026 at UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs Rodrigues in Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, CA. Official result not yet recorded. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

slot.Prelim · LightweightID · DCB7763E-E98F-44F7-A091-0E04C676345E
MarQuel Mederos

Rank NR · Lightweight

MarQuel Mederos

11-1-1 · MMA

Rank NR · Lightweight

Mason Jones

"The Dragon"

18-2-0 · MMA

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Mederos

45%

Edge10%

Jones

55%

Skill Comparison

82
82
Striking
55
86
Wrestling
83
87
Cardio
84
82
Takedown Defense
84
83
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

MederosMetricJones
5' 10"Height5' 10"
69.5"Reach74"
29Age30
OrthodoxStanceOrthodox
55%Finish Rate61%

Career Records

MederosMetricJones
6Wins by KO/TKO8
0Wins by Submission3
3First-Round Finishes5
4.84Sig. Strikes / Min5.98
2.99Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min4.45
56%Striking Accuracy43%
58%Striking Defense51%
—Knockdown Avg / 15 min0.17
0Takedowns / 15 min3.48
0%Takedown Accuracy29%
83%Takedown Defense74%
0Submissions / 15 min0.17
—Avg. Fight Time12:56

Strike Distribution

Mederos

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

59%

Body

16%

Leg

25%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Mederos

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 84%Standing84%
Clinch — 12%Clinch12%
Ground — 4%Ground4%

Primary Position Standing

Jones

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

69%

Body

23%

Leg

8%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Jones

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 71%Standing71%
Clinch — 16%Clinch16%
Ground — 13%Ground13%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

Latest News

— No recent news —

Mederos

Strengths

  • 56% striking accuracy
  • 2.99 SApM
  • 83% TDD

Weaknesses

  • No meaningful offensive TD game
  • 4.5-inch reach deficit
  • Lower overall activity

Opportunities

  • Counter Jones' entries
  • Keep fight in measured boxing range

Threats

  • Jones' 3.48 TD/15
  • Jones' 5.98 SLpM
Jones

Strengths

  • 5.98 SLpM
  • 3.48 TD/15
  • 74-inch reach

Weaknesses

  • 4.45 SApM
  • 51% striking defense
  • Takedown accuracy modest on current UFC aggregate

Opportunities

  • Blend pressure into wrestling
  • Make Mederos defend multiple phases

Threats

  • Mederos' 83% TDD
  • Accurate counters

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Jones
Key Advantages
  • Mederos absorbs only 2.99 SLpM and defends 83% of takedowns.
  • Jones produces 5.98 SLpM plus 3.48 takedowns per 15.
  • Jones owns a 74-inch reach versus Mederos' 69.5 inches.
Potential Concerns
  • Jones absorbs 4.45 SLpM, leaving counter opportunities for Mederos.
  • Mederos' 83% TDD directly challenges Jones' wrestling route.
  • Mederos is on a 10-fight unbeaten run after the Padilla draw.
AI Analysis

Mederos is the cleaner defensive striker, but Jones' reach, wrestling volume and deeper UFC pace give him the broader minute-winning toolkit.

Forecast

Jones should pressure behind combinations and use his reach to push Mederos toward the fence before changing levels. Mederos' best route is to punish entries, keep Jones working from distance and make the Welshman pay for his 4.45 SApM defensive exposure. The fight projects as competitive for all three rounds. Jones by decision is the narrow model lean, with Mederos' counter striking making confidence moderate.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

Mederos brings the cleaner defensive baseline, with 2.99 significant strikes absorbed per minute and 83% takedown defense. Jones counters with more offensive layers: nearly six significant strikes landed per minute, 3.48 takedowns per 15 and a 4.5-inch reach advantage. The key is whether Jones can turn his pressure into clinch and wrestling sequences without becoming too hittable in open space. If Mederos keeps the fight at measured boxing range, his accuracy and defense can make the rounds close. Over fifteen minutes, the model slightly prefers Jones' ability to win both striking volume and grappling minutes.

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