← UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs RodriguesReinier de RidderRoman Dolidze

Reinier de Ridder vs Roman DolidzeUFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs Rodrigues

Reinier de Ridder vs Roman Dolidze — Light Heavyweight — was scheduled for Saturday, August 22, 2026 at UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs Rodrigues in Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, CA. Official result not yet recorded. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

slot.Co-Main · Light HeavyweightID · A4694BA4-9979-492C-AA1F-5672B7FBF002

Rank NR · Light Heavyweight

Reinier de Ridder

"RdR"

21-4-0 · Jiu-Jitsu

Rank NR · Light Heavyweight

Roman Dolidze

15-5-0 · MMA

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Ridder

62%

Edge24%

Dolidze

38%

Skill Comparison

Striking

Wrestling

Cardio

Takedown Defense

Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

RidderMetricDolidze

6' 4"Height6' 2"

78"Reach76"

35Age37

SouthpawStanceOrthodox

86%Finish Rate73%

Career Records

RidderMetricDolidze

5Wins by KO/TKO8

13Wins by Submission3

11First-Round Finishes8

2.47Sig. Strikes / Min3.19

2.36Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min3.71

48%Striking Accuracy42%

47%Striking Defense48%

0.37Knockdown Avg / 15 min0.33

2.56Takedowns / 15 min1.16

29%Takedown Accuracy28%

40%Takedown Defense32%

0.55Submissions / 15 min0.74

13:41Avg. Fight Time12:58

Strike Distribution

Ridder

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

60%

Body

32%

Leg

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing76%

Clinch15%

Ground9%

Primary Position Standing

Dolidze

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

63%

Body

15%

Leg

22%

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing81%

Clinch6%

Ground13%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Ridder

Key Advantages

De Ridder absorbs only 2.36 significant strikes per minute versus Dolidze's 3.71.
De Ridder owns 13 submission wins and a 78-inch reach.
Dolidze brings eight career KOs and a more active 3.19 SLpM striking pace.

Potential Concerns

Dolidze's 32% takedown defense is a major concern against de Ridder's grappling pressure.
De Ridder has lost two straight entering this fight.
Dolidze is dangerous in unconventional leg-lock and scramble positions.

AI Analysis

De Ridder's length, lower absorbed-strike rate and submission depth give him more paths, but Dolidze's power and leg-lock game make chaotic grappling dangerous.

Forecast

De Ridder should initiate clinches early and try to make Dolidze carry his frame along the fence. Dolidze will likely answer with short power punches and opportunistic leg attacks during transitions. If de Ridder avoids extended pocket exchanges, his submission and control volume should build through rounds two and three. The most likely outcome is de Ridder by decision or submission.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

At range, de Ridder has a four-inch height advantage and two-inch reach advantage, but neither man is a pure distance striker. De Ridder's preferred route is to close space, connect his clinch to trips and force Dolidze to defend extended grappling. Dolidze's 32% takedown defense is the clearest statistical vulnerability, although his own grappling background makes careless top-position attacks risky. Dolidze's eight career knockouts and 3.19 SLpM give him the cleaner damage route if he can keep long stretches upright. The model favors de Ridder's positional and submission pathways but keeps Dolidze live because both men create abrupt momentum shifts.

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