← UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs RodriguesSerghei SpivacVitor Petrino

Serghei Spivac vs Vitor PetrinoUFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs Rodrigues

Serghei Spivac vs Vitor Petrino — Heavyweight — was scheduled for Saturday, August 22, 2026 at UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs Rodrigues in Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, CA. Official result not yet recorded. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

Main Card · HeavyweightID · D7297BCF-3AAD-46FB-847B-74F6C97A834B
Serghei Spivac

Rank #6 · Heavyweight

Serghei Spivac

"Polar Bear"

18-6-0 · Sambo

Vitor Petrino

Rank NR · Heavyweight

Vitor Petrino

14-2-0 · Striker

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Spivac

47%

Edge6%

Petrino

53%

Skill Comparison

66
74
Striking
87
78
Wrestling
72
81
Cardio
73
84
Takedown Defense
67
82
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

SpivacMetricPetrino
6' 3"Height6' 2"
78"Reach77.5"
31Age28
OrthodoxStanceOrthodox
83%Finish Rate71%

Career Records

SpivacMetricPetrino
7Wins by KO/TKO8
8Wins by Submission2
11First-Round Finishes5
3.57Sig. Strikes / Min3.24
4.23Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min2.71
47%Striking Accuracy48%
52%Striking Defense51%
0Knockdown Avg / 15 min0.58
3.82Takedowns / 15 min2.60
59%Takedown Accuracy46%
63%Takedown Defense79%
0.50Submissions / 15 min0.70
08:22Avg. Fight Time10:23

Strike Distribution

Spivac

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

94%

Body

4%

Leg

2%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Spivac

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 61%Standing61%
Clinch — 4%Clinch4%
Ground — 35%Ground35%

Primary Position Standing

Petrino

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

71%

Body

18%

Leg

11%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Petrino

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 81%Standing81%
Clinch — 4%Clinch4%
Ground — 16%Ground16%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

Latest News

— No recent news —

Spivac

Strengths

  • 3.82 TD/15
  • 59% TD accuracy
  • Eight submission wins

Weaknesses

  • 4.23 SApM
  • Limited knockdown threat
  • Punishable failed entries

Opportunities

  • Force body-lock sequences
  • Test Petrino's heavyweight grappling

Threats

  • 79% Petrino TDD
  • Athletic scrambles
Petrino

Strengths

  • 79% TDD
  • 2.71 SApM
  • 2.60 TD/15

Weaknesses

  • Less submission experience
  • Can be controlled if flattened
  • Heavyweight sample still developing

Opportunities

  • Make Spivac re-shoot
  • Counter failed takedowns

Threats

  • 59% Spivac TD accuracy
  • Eight-submission history

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Petrino
Key Advantages
  • Spivac averages 3.82 takedowns per 15 at 59% accuracy.
  • Petrino absorbs only 2.71 significant strikes per minute and defends 79% of takedowns.
  • Petrino adds 2.60 takedowns per 15, giving him a secondary grappling route.
Potential Concerns
  • Spivac absorbs 4.23 significant strikes per minute.
  • Petrino must prove his 79% TDD against one of the division's higher-volume takedown chains.
  • Heavyweight variance keeps both finishing routes meaningful.
AI Analysis

Spivac owns the stronger takedown-volume game, but Petrino's 79% takedown defense and cleaner striking defense make him a narrow model favorite.

Forecast

Spivac should test Petrino's takedown defense immediately and may win early control minutes. Petrino's best response is to separate quickly, make Spivac reset and force repeated entries in open space. If Petrino remains upright more often than not, his cleaner defensive striking and explosiveness should separate the fight. A close Petrino decision is the leading projection, with Spivac submission the clearest alternative.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

Spivac's path is to close distance, connect body locks to trips and keep Petrino underneath him. His 3.82 takedowns per 15 at 59% accuracy is the strongest single wrestling statistic in the matchup. Petrino has defended 79% of takedowns while absorbing just 2.71 significant strikes per minute, and his athleticism has translated well at heavyweight. Petrino also averages 2.60 takedowns per 15, which can punish overcommitted upper-body attacks. The model narrowly prefers Petrino's defensive profile and broader transition options.

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