← UFC Fight Night: Medić vs RodriguezDuško TodorovićRobert Valentin

Duško Todorović vs Robert Valentin — Middleweight — was scheduled for Saturday, August 1, 2026 at UFC Fight Night: Medić vs Rodriguez in Belgrade Arena, Belgrade, Serbia. Official result not yet recorded. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

Main Card · MiddleweightID · 199DA2B5-B8CC-42D9-A60F-F55747D69B1F
Duško Todorović

Rank NR · Middleweight

Duško Todorović

"Thunder"

13-6-0 · MMA

Robert Valentin

Rank NR · Middleweight

Robert Valentin

"Robzilla"

12-6-0 · —

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Todorović

61%

Edge22%

Valentin

39%

Skill Comparison

77
48
Striking
71
56
Wrestling
71
71
Cardio
55
65
Takedown Defense
67
72
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

TodorovićMetricValentin
6' 1"Height6' 2"
74"Reach77"
31Age31
—Stance—
92%Finish Rate92%

Career Records

TodorovićMetricValentin
8Wins by KO/TKO3
4Wins by Submission8
8First-Round Finishes8
4.73Sig. Strikes / Min1.30
4.40Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min2.72
48%Striking Defense33%
0Knockdown Avg / 15 min0
1.77Takedowns / 15 min0.59
43%Takedown Defense55%
0.35Submissions / 15 min1.78

Strike Distribution

Todorović

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

67%

Body

27%

Leg

6%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Todorović

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 48%Standing48%
Clinch — 34%Clinch34%
Ground — 18%Ground18%

Primary Position Standing

Valentin

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

64%

Body

18%

Leg

18%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Valentin

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 46%Standing46%
Clinch — 36%Clinch36%
Ground — 18%Ground18%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

Latest News

— No recent news —

Todorović

Strengths

  • Elite striking volume (4.73 SLpM)
  • High wrestling frequency (1.77 TDavg)
  • Proven 61% first-round finish rate

Weaknesses

  • Low takedown defense (43%)
  • Negative striking differential (-0.33)
  • Historically hittable (4.4 SApM)

Opportunities

  • Exploit Valentin's 33% strike defense
  • Utilize offensive wrestling (71 score)
  • Force high-pace striking exchanges

Threats

  • Valentin's 1.78 submission average
  • Giving up 3 inches of reach
  • Valentin's 72 chin rating longevity
Valentin

Strengths

  • Major submission threat (1.78 SubAvg)
  • Long 77-inch reach for the division
  • Solid 55% takedown defense

Weaknesses

  • Very low striking volume (1.3 SLpM)
  • Poor striking defense (33%)
  • Low takedown efficiency (0.59 TDavg)

Opportunities

  • Attack Todorović's 43% TD defense
  • Utilize reach to keep A at bay
  • Counter-grapple for eighth career sub

Threats

  • Getting overwhelmed by 4.73 SLpM
  • Todorović's 77-rated striking power
  • Home town advantage for opponent

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Todorović
Key Advantages
  • Todorović holds a massive 263% striking volume advantage with 4.73 SLpM compared to Valentin's 1.3 SLpM.
  • Todorović doubles the wrestling output of his opponent with a 1.77 TDavg versus Valentin's 0.59.
  • Todorović boasts a significantly higher offensive ceiling in the striking department with a modeled score of 77 compared to Valentin's 48.
  • Todorović owns a superior striking defense rate of 48% against Valentin's 33%.
Potential Concerns
  • Valentin possess a significant reach advantage of 3 inches at 77" which could help him navigate his lower volume.
  • Todorović maintains a low takedown defense of 43%, leaving him vulnerable to Valentin's 1.78 SubAvg.
  • Valentin is modeled with a slightly higher chin rating of 72 compared to Todorović's 67.
AI Analysis

A battle of first-round finishers pits Duško Todorović's high-volume offensive pressure against Robert Valentin's dangerous submission threat in a Belgrade homecoming.

Forecast

Todorović is expected to utilize his home-crowd energy in Belgrade to set a blistering pace from the opening bell. Given his 61% win probability, the path to victory lies in his ability to exploit Valentin's 33% striking defense via high-volume combinations. While Valentin will look to utilize his 77-inch reach to find a submission early, Todorović's superior 77-rated striking should overwhelm the visitor. Expect Todorović to pressure Valentin against the cage, avoiding the ground to negate the 1.78 SubAvg threat. The most likely outcome is a TKO victory for Todorović, likely within the first two rounds, as his 8 first-round finishes align with Valentin's defensive struggles.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

This contest features two fighters with identical 31-year-old ages and a history of early finishes, both recording 8 first-round wins. Todorović relies on a relentless pace, landing 4.73 significant strikes per minute, which forces opponents into high-variance exchanges. Valentin operates at a much slower pace of 1.3 SLpM but carries a much higher submission threat, averaging 1.78 submission attempts per 15 minutes. While Todorović leads the wrestling volume with 1.77 takedowns per match, his 43% defense rate suggests he may struggle if he initiates grappling against a specialist with Valentin’s sub rate. However, Valentin’s low 33% striking defense could be a critical flaw against Todorović's high-pressure boxing.

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