Live tonight/ Event ID · 18FECB12-E17E-45A5-881D-A2777A07F8BB

UFC Fight Night: Medić vs Rodriguez

Saturday, August 1, 2026 · Belgrade Arena · Belgrade, Serbia

Main Card01:00 PM EDT

Fights12

UFC Fight Night: Medić vs Rodriguez takes place on Saturday, August 1, 2026 at Belgrade Arena, Belgrade, Serbia. Picks Terminal covers 12 bouts on the card with win probabilities, matchup breakdowns and fight intel. Main event: Daniel Rodriguez vs Uroš Medić.

Main Event · WelterweightID · BAE157AA-4E70-4FBA-86B4-C5048F0096E8

Rank #15 WW · Welterweight

Daniel Rodriguez

"D-Rod"

20-5-0 · Freestyle

Rank #11 · Welterweight

Uroš Medić

14-3-0 · MMA

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Rodriguez

45%

Edge10%

Medić

55%

Skill Comparison

Striking

Wrestling

Cardio

Takedown Defense

Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

RodriguezMetricMedić

6' 1"Height6' 1"

74"Reach71"

39Age33

—Stance—

65%Finish Rate100%

Career Records

RodriguezMetricMedić

9Wins by KO/TKO12

4Wins by Submission2

5First-Round Finishes11

7.20Sig. Strikes / Min5.77

5.40Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min3.40

—Striking Accuracy61%

58%Striking Defense57%

0.59Knockdown Avg / 15 min3.72

0.51Takedowns / 15 min0.34

64%Takedown Defense56%

0.08Submissions / 15 min0

—Avg. Fight Time03:42

Strike Distribution

Rodriguez

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

62%

Body

20%

Leg

18%

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing94%

Clinch2%

Ground4%

Primary Position Standing

Medić

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

66%

Body

23%

Leg

11%

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing61%

Clinch11%

Ground28%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Medić

Key Advantages

Rodriguez: 7.2 SLpM volume significantly outpaces Medić's 5.59 output by nearly 29%.
Rodriguez: Holds a 3-inch reach advantage (74" vs 71") which aids his 90-rated striking model.
Rodriguez: Superior takedown defense of 64% vs 56% likely keeps the fight in his preferred striking range.
Medic: Massive 3.42 KDavg indicates a lethal power advantage compared to Rodriguez's 0.59 KDavg.
Medic: Boasts a 100% finish rate with 10 first-round finishes, suggesting a dangerous early-game threat.

Potential Concerns

Rodriguez: At age 39, his 64-rated chin may struggle against an opponent with a 3.42 KDavg.
Rodriguez: High 5.4 SApM suggests he absorbs significant damage while maintaining his high-volume pace.
Medic: Lacks experience in deep waters with zero decision wins on his professional record.
Medic: 56% takedown defense and 65-rated TDD model are vulnerabilities against high-level MMA pressure.

AI Analysis

A classic striking battle features high-volume veteran Daniel Rodriguez against the explosive finishing power of Uroš Medić in a clash of ranked welterweights.

Forecast

Expect a frantic first round where Medić attempts to add to his 10 first-round finishes by hunting for a knockdown using his 3.42 KDavg. Rodriguez will attempt to weather the early storm, utilizing his 74-inch reach and high-volume jabs to disrupt Medić's timing. As the fight progresses, Rodriguez's superior 7.2 SLpM should allow him to pull ahead on the scorecards, provided his 64-rated chin holds up against the power. However, the model gives Rodriguez a 45% win probability because his defensive deficiencies (5.4 SApM) align poorly with Medić's explosive finishing ability. If Medić fails to find the finish in the first 7 minutes, Rodriguez's experience and volume make a late decision feasible, but the threat of a Medić KO remains the primary deciding factor.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

The striking metrics present a high-risk, high-reward scenario where Rodriguez’s 7.2 SLpM volume meets Medić’s extreme 3.42 KDavg power. Rodriguez relies on a relentless 90-rated freestyle striking approach, but his 5.4 SApM indicates he is often hit clean, which is dangerous against an opponent with 11 career knockouts. Medić maintains a lower volume but is highly efficient, having secured 10 first-round finishes, though he faces a veteran with a 58% striking defense. While Rodriguez has the superior wrestling (55 model) and TDD (64%), the lack of offensive grappling from both suggests a stand-up war. The age gap is notable, with Rodriguez at 39 facing a younger, fresher athlete in the 33-year-old Medić.

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