← UFC Fight Night: Medić vs RodriguezKyle PrepolecMateusz Rębecki

Kyle Prepolec vs Mateusz Rębecki — Lightweight — was scheduled for Saturday, August 1, 2026 at UFC Fight Night: Medić vs Rodriguez in Belgrade Arena, Belgrade, Serbia. Official result not yet recorded. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

slot.Prelim · LightweightID · 6CF9694B-A835-4D79-9CEF-959A8BBEE2C3
Kyle Prepolec

Rank NR · Lightweight

Kyle Prepolec

"Killshot"

18-10-0 · Grappler

Mateusz Rębecki

Rank NR · Lightweight

Mateusz Rębecki

20-5-0 · Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Prepolec

32%

Edge36%

Rębecki

68%

Skill Comparison

65
65
Striking
60
60
Wrestling
72
72
Cardio
65
65
Takedown Defense
70
70
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

PrepolecMetricRębecki
5' 10"Height5' 7"
70"Reach66"
36Age33
—Stance—
78%Finish Rate80%

Career Records

PrepolecMetricRębecki
10Wins by KO/TKO9
4Wins by Submission7
7First-Round Finishes10

Strike Distribution

Prepolec

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

61%

Body

25%

Leg

14%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Prepolec

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 97%Standing97%
Clinch — 3%Clinch3%
Ground — 0%Ground0%

Primary Position Standing

Rębecki

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

69%

Body

16%

Leg

15%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Rębecki

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 80%Standing80%
Clinch — 5%Clinch5%
Ground — 15%Ground15%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

Latest News

— No recent news —

Prepolec

Strengths

  • Significant 4-inch reach advantage
  • Proven 70-rated durability
  • High volume of career KO wins (10)

Weaknesses

  • Lower career win percentage (64%)
  • Age disadvantage at 36 years old
  • Double the career losses of opponent

Opportunities

  • Use 5' 10" frame to keep BJJ specialist at range
  • Test Rębecki's cardio in the third round

Threats

  • High volume of Rębecki's first-round finishes
  • Giving up neck in grappling transitions
Rębecki

Strengths

  • 80% career win rate
  • Elite first-round finishing (10 wins)
  • Balanced 9 KO and 7 Sub finishes

Weaknesses

  • Severe 4-inch reach disadvantage
  • Stature deficit at 5' 7" height

Opportunities

  • Exploit age gap against the 36-year-old
  • Force ground exchanges to utilize BJJ specialty

Threats

  • Getting trapped on the outside by long jabs
  • Prepolec's identical 72 cardio rating

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Rębecki
Key Advantages
  • Prepolec holds a significant 3-inch height and 4-inch reach advantage over Rębecki.
  • Rębecki possesses a superior first-round finish rate, recording 10 openers compared to Prepolec's 7.
  • Rębecki holds a higher winning percentage of 80% compared to Prepolec's 64% over their respective careers.
  • Prepolec demonstrates professional versatility with a higher distribution of knockout wins (10) for the designated grappler archetype.
Potential Concerns
  • Prepolec enters the bout at age 36, facing a younger 33-year-old opponent in Rębecki.
  • Rębecki faces a size deficit, standing only 5' 7" against a 5' 10" opponent.
  • Prepolec has sustained double the professional losses (10) compared to Rębecki (5).
AI Analysis

A classic clash of experienced unranked lightweights where Mateusz Rębecki's explosive finishing rate meets Kyle Prepolec's physical frame and durability.

Forecast

The model forecasts a 68% win probability for Mateusz Rębecki, largely driven by his higher win-to-loss ratio and aggressive finishing capability. Expect Rębecki to close the distance early to negate Prepolec's 4-inch reach advantage, seeking to extend his record of 7 submission victories. Prepolec's 70-rated chin suggests he can survive the initial onslaught, likely pushing the fight into the second round where his cardio (72) remains competitive. However, Rębecki’s grappling pedigree is expected to dictate the positioning in the clinch and on the mat. The most likely outcome is a Rębecki victory via decision or late second-round submission as Prepolec’s age may become a factor in high-intensity scrambles.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

This matchup features two fighters with identical technical profiles, sharing modeled scores in striking (65), wrestling (60), and cardio (72). Despite Prepolec being labeled a grappler and Rębecki a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu specialist, their statistical output is remarkably mirrored with both carrying 70 chin ratings and 65 TDD. The physical variables favor Prepolec, who utilizes a 70-inch reach to navigate the 66-inch reach of the shorter Rębecki. However, Rębecki’s efficiency in ending fights early is notable, as 50% of his wins occur in the first round. Prepolec's path to victory relies on leveraging his 188 professional rounds of experience to weather the early storm from the Polish specialist.

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