← UFC Fight Night: Medić vs RodriguezLudovit KleinTofiq Musayev

Ludovit Klein vs Tofiq Musayev — Lightweight — was scheduled for Saturday, August 1, 2026 at UFC Fight Night: Medić vs Rodriguez in Belgrade Arena, Belgrade, Serbia. Official result not yet recorded. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

slot.Prelim · LightweightID · 711AA1E9-E45E-43E4-BA9F-60CCDE068588
Ludovit Klein

Rank NR · Lightweight

Ludovit Klein

"Mr. Highlight"

24-5-1 · Boxing

Tofiq Musayev

Rank NR · Lightweight

Tofiq Musayev

23-6-0 · Kickboxer

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Klein

63%

Edge26%

Musayev

37%

Skill Comparison

71
55
Striking
66
76
Wrestling
73
71
Cardio
82
60
Takedown Defense
70
75
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

KleinMetricMusayev
5' 7"Height5' 9"
72.5"Reach69"
30Age36
—Stance—
71%Finish Rate87%

Career Records

KleinMetricMusayev
9Wins by KO/TKO18
8Wins by Submission2
10First-Round Finishes14
3.76Sig. Strikes / Min1.84
3.48Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min1.74
53%Striking Defense51%
0.49Knockdown Avg / 15 min0
1.37Takedowns / 15 min2.30
76%Takedown Defense50%
0Submissions / 15 min0

Strike Distribution

Klein

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

59%

Body

30%

Leg

11%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Klein

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 80%Standing80%
Clinch — 10%Clinch10%
Ground — 10%Ground10%

Primary Position Standing

Musayev

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

75%

Body

19%

Leg

6%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Musayev

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 39%Standing39%
Clinch — 5%Clinch5%
Ground — 56%Ground56%

Primary Position Ground

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

Latest News

— No recent news —

Klein

Strengths

  • Superior striking volume (3.76 SLpM)
  • High-level 76% takedown defense
  • Significant 3.5-inch reach advantage

Weaknesses

  • Higher 3.48 SApM defensive metrics
  • Modeled chin score (70) lower than B
  • Lack of offensive submission threat

Opportunities

  • Exploit Musayev's 50% takedown defense
  • Outwork opponent via 73 cardio rating
  • Utilize 0.49 KDavg to force a stoppage

Threats

  • Musayev's 14 first-round finishes
  • Conceding 2.3 takedowns per 15 mins
  • Musayev's 18-KO career power
Musayev

Strengths

  • Dangerous 18-KO finishing rate
  • Solid 2.3 takedown average per 15
  • Modeled chin durability (75)

Weaknesses

  • Low offensive volume (1.84 SLpM)
  • Vulnerable 50% takedown defense
  • Zero career UFC/Stats knockdown avg

Opportunities

  • Land heavy early strikes for KO
  • Target Klein's 3.48 SApM defense
  • Control fight via wrestling (76-wres)

Threats

  • Negative 3.5-inch reach disparity
  • Significant 6-year age disadvantage
  • Klein's 71-rated striking accuracy

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Klein
Key Advantages
  • Klein: Holds a significant 3.5-inch reach advantage despite being two inches shorter than Musayev.
  • Klein: Produces 3.76 SLpM, doubling the offensive output of Musayev's 1.84 SLpM.
  • Klein: Boasts a superior 76% takedown defense compared to Musayev's 50% TDD rate.
  • Klein: Displays a higher knockdown average of 0.49 per 15 minutes, while Musayev remains at zero.
  • Klein: At age 30, presents a younger profile with an 11-point advantage in striking modeling (71 to 60) and 22-point advantage in TDD modeling (82 to 60).
Potential Concerns
  • Musayev: Averages 2.3 takedowns per 15 minutes, which could test Klein's defensive wrestling over three rounds.
  • Musayev: Possesses massive stopping power with 18 career knockouts and 14 first-round finishes.
  • Klein: Absorbs more volume at 3.48 SApM compared to Musayev's 1.74 SApM.
  • Klein: Modeled chin score of 70 is slightly lower than Musayev’s 75.
AI Analysis

A high-stakes lightweight clash in Belgrade features Ludovit Klein's volume striking and distance control against Tofiq Musayev's wrestling-heavy approach and early finishing power.

Forecast

Klein is expected to establish range early using his superior 72.5-inch reach to pump the jab and keep Musayev at bay. Given Musayev's propensity for early finishes (14 in round one), the first five minutes will be high-risk for Klein, but his 82-rated TDD should nullify Musayev's wrestling attempts. As the fight progresses into the second round, Klein's 104% higher output rate (3.76 SLpM vs 1.84 SLpM) is likely to overwhelm Musayev's defense. A 63% win probability for Klein reflects his ability to dictate where the fight takes place and his younger, more active striking profile. The most probable outcome is a Klein victory via late TKO or a clear Unanimous Decision fueled by volume.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

Ludovit Klein enters this bout with a distinct technical striking edge, reflected in a 3.76 to 1.84 SLpM advantage. While Musayev is a dangerous kickboxer with 18 KOs, his lower volume and 0.00 KDavg suggest a more reactive style compared to Klein’s 0.49 KDavg. Musayev's primary path to victory lies in his 2.3 TDavg, but he faces a significant hurdle in Klein’s 76% takedown defense. Klein’s 72.5-inch reach will allow him to stay on the outside of the taller athlete and exploit Musayev’s 51% striking defense. The 6-year age gap favors Klein, whose 73 cardio rating should sustain his volume over Musayev's 71 rating if the fight leaves the first round.

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