← UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs NolanCody DurdenOde' Osbourne

Cody Durden vs Ode' OsbourneUFC Fight Night: Moicano vs Nolan

Cody Durden vs Ode' Osbourne — Flyweight — was scheduled for Saturday, October 31, 2026 at UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs Nolan in Meta APEX, Las Vegas. Official result not yet recorded. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

Main Card · FlyweightID · 56ACEE5A-D0A4-478B-A0DB-B69EFDDB980A
Cody Durden

Unranked · Flyweight

Cody Durden

18-11-1 · Striker

Ode' Osbourne

Unranked · Flyweight

Ode' Osbourne

13-9-0 · Striker

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Durden

56%

Edge12%

Osbourne

44%

Skill Comparison

84
81
Striking
89
74
Wrestling
78
74
Cardio
57
67
Takedown Defense
84
83
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

DurdenMetricOsbourne
5' 7"Height5' 7"
67"Reach73"
35Age34
—Stance—
67%Finish Rate77%

Career Records

DurdenMetricOsbourne
6Wins by KO/TKO6
6Wins by Submission4
9First-Round Finishes8
3.27Sig. Strikes / Min2.94
3.89Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min3.24
44%Striking Accuracy41%
51%Striking Defense49%
0.09Knockdown Avg / 15 min0.54
3.82Takedowns / 15 min0.94
10%Takedown Accuracy29%
57%Takedown Defense67%
0.62Submissions / 15 min0.40
09:56Avg. Fight Time07:56

Strike Distribution

Durden

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

73%

Body

13%

Leg

14%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Durden

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 86%Standing86%
Clinch — 4%Clinch4%
Ground — 11%Ground11%

Primary Position Standing

Osbourne

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

66%

Body

20%

Leg

14%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Osbourne

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 83%Standing83%
Clinch — 5%Clinch5%
Ground — 12%Ground12%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

Latest News

— No recent news —

Durden

Strengths

  • Cody Durden leads in takedown activity per 15 minutes (3.82 vs 0.94)
  • A momentum swing could expose the less-tested defensive layer
  • Small samples add uncertainty to the numerical comparison

Weaknesses

  • Ode' Osbourne leads in takedown defense (67% vs 57%)
  • Ode' Osbourne owns a 6-inch reach advantage

Opportunities

  • Force Ode' Osbourne away from the projected win condition
  • Exploit transitions after the first defensive layer

Threats

  • Ode' Osbourne leads in takedown defense (67% vs 57%)
  • Clean defense-to-offense transitions can protect Ode' Osbourne's preferred range
Osbourne

Strengths

  • Ode' Osbourne leads in takedown defense (67% vs 57%)
  • Ode' Osbourne owns a 6-inch reach advantage
  • Clean defense-to-offense transitions can protect Ode' Osbourne's preferred range

Weaknesses

  • Cody Durden leads in takedown activity per 15 minutes (3.82 vs 0.94)
  • A momentum swing could expose the less-tested defensive layer

Opportunities

  • Establish the preferred phase early
  • Turn measurable advantages into repeatable scoring sequences

Threats

  • Cody Durden changing the fight phase
  • Small samples add uncertainty to the numerical comparison

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Durden
Key Advantages
  • Cody Durden leads in takedown activity per 15 minutes (3.82 vs 0.94)
  • A momentum swing could expose the less-tested defensive layer
  • Small samples add uncertainty to the numerical comparison
Potential Concerns
  • Ode' Osbourne leads in takedown defense (67% vs 57%)
  • Ode' Osbourne owns a 6-inch reach advantage
  • Clean defense-to-offense transitions can protect Ode' Osbourne's preferred range
AI Analysis

Cody Durden's blend of measurable phase advantages and repeatable scoring routes produces a 56-44 analyst-model lean.

Forecast

Cody Durden is projected to win the higher share of repeatable scoring exchanges, but the matchup remains competitive and sensitive to early phase control.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

Ode' Osbourne projects best when the fight stays in the phases reflected by the stronger pace and defensive metrics, while Cody Durden can change the matchup through pressure, transitions and sustained control. The projection stays conservative because career aggregates do not capture every tactical adjustment, and limited UFC samples are down-weighted.

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