Live tonight/ Event ID · 22CA755D-1ABB-4FB1-B81C-C929F80638C6

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs Nolan

Saturday, October 31, 2026 · Meta APEX · Las Vegas

Main Card08:00 PM EDT

Fights12

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs Nolan takes place on Saturday, October 31, 2026 at Meta APEX, Las Vegas. Picks Terminal covers 12 bouts on the card with win probabilities, matchup breakdowns and fight intel. Main event: Renato Moicano vs Tom Nolan.

Main Event · LightweightID · 65EC10B7-8611-46C7-A1E2-537BA0949208

Rank #12 · Lightweight

Renato Moicano

21-7-1 · Jiu-Jitsu

Rank #14 · Lightweight

Tom Nolan

11-1-0 · MMA

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Moicano

54%

Edge8%

Nolan

46%

Skill Comparison

Striking

Wrestling

Cardio

Takedown Defense

Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

MoicanoMetricNolan

5' 11"Height6' 3"

72"Reach73"

37Age26

—Stance—

62%Finish Rate55%

Career Records

MoicanoMetricNolan

2Wins by KO/TKO5

11Wins by Submission1

4First-Round Finishes5

4.10Sig. Strikes / Min4.84

3.55Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min3.74

49%Striking Accuracy46%

60%Striking Defense49%

0.16Knockdown Avg / 15 min0.54

1.68Takedowns / 15 min1.08

12%Takedown Accuracy—

64%Takedown Defense58%

0.56Submissions / 15 min1.35

09:24Avg. Fight Time07:55

Strike Distribution

Moicano

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

73%

Body

10%

Leg

17%

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing82%

Clinch3%

Ground14%

Primary Position Standing

Nolan

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

50%

Body

32%

Leg

18%

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing77%

Clinch16%

Ground7%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Moicano

Key Advantages

Renato Moicano leads in significant-strike defense (60% vs 49%)
Renato Moicano leads in takedown activity per 15 minutes (1.68 vs 1.08)
Renato Moicano leads in takedown defense (64% vs 58%)

Potential Concerns

Tom Nolan leads in significant-strike pace (4.84 vs 4.1)
Tom Nolan leads in submission activity per 15 minutes (1.35 vs 0.56)
Small samples add uncertainty to the numerical comparison

AI Analysis

Renato Moicano's blend of measurable phase advantages and repeatable scoring routes produces a 54-46 analyst-model lean.

Forecast

Renato Moicano is projected to win the higher share of repeatable scoring exchanges, but the matchup remains competitive and sensitive to early phase control.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

Renato Moicano projects best when the fight stays in the phases reflected by the stronger pace and defensive metrics, while Tom Nolan can change the matchup through pressure, transitions and sustained control. The projection stays conservative because career aggregates do not capture every tactical adjustment, and limited UFC samples are down-weighted.

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