← UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs NolanJeongYeong LeeJulian Erosa

JeongYeong Lee vs Julian ErosaUFC Fight Night: Moicano vs Nolan

JeongYeong Lee vs Julian Erosa — Featherweight — was scheduled for Saturday, October 31, 2026 at UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs Nolan in Meta APEX, Las Vegas. Official result not yet recorded. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

Prelims · FeatherweightID · 3E603D6C-78F1-49D0-B9FA-D27FC8E99D1F

Unranked · Featherweight

JeongYeong Lee

11-3-0 · Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu

Unranked · Featherweight

Julian Erosa

31-14-0 · Striker

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Lee

44%

Edge12%

Erosa

56%

Skill Comparison

85
96
Striking
74
79
Wrestling
75
74
Cardio
73
62
Takedown Defense
84
84
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

LeeMetricErosa
5' 10"Height6' 1"
73.5"Reach74.5"
30Age37
—Stance—
64%Finish Rate84%

Career Records

LeeMetricErosa
4Wins by KO/TKO12
3Wins by Submission14
5First-Round Finishes9
3.38Sig. Strikes / Min6.18
3.82Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min6.31
49%Striking Accuracy48%
51%Striking Defense49%
0.32Knockdown Avg / 15 min0.20
0.63Takedowns / 15 min1.73
—Takedown Accuracy8%
73%Takedown Defense62%
0.32Submissions / 15 min0.71
07:54Avg. Fight Time07:45

Strike Distribution

Lee

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

67%

Body

24%

Leg

9%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Lee

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 70%Standing70%
Clinch — 18%Clinch18%
Ground — 12%Ground12%

Primary Position Standing

Erosa

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

66%

Body

24%

Leg

10%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Erosa

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 78%Standing78%
Clinch — 16%Clinch16%
Ground — 6%Ground6%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

Latest News

— No recent news —

Lee

Strengths

  • JeongYeong Lee leads in takedown defense (73% vs 62%)
  • A momentum swing could expose the less-tested defensive layer
  • Small samples add uncertainty to the numerical comparison

Weaknesses

  • Julian Erosa leads in significant-strike pace (6.18 vs 3.38)
  • Julian Erosa leads in takedown activity per 15 minutes (1.73 vs 0.63)

Opportunities

  • Force Julian Erosa away from the projected win condition
  • Exploit transitions after the first defensive layer

Threats

  • Julian Erosa leads in significant-strike pace (6.18 vs 3.38)
  • Julian Erosa leads in submission activity per 15 minutes (0.71 vs 0.32)
Erosa

Strengths

  • Julian Erosa leads in significant-strike pace (6.18 vs 3.38)
  • Julian Erosa leads in takedown activity per 15 minutes (1.73 vs 0.63)
  • Julian Erosa leads in submission activity per 15 minutes (0.71 vs 0.32)

Weaknesses

  • JeongYeong Lee leads in takedown defense (73% vs 62%)
  • A momentum swing could expose the less-tested defensive layer

Opportunities

  • Establish the preferred phase early
  • Turn measurable advantages into repeatable scoring sequences

Threats

  • JeongYeong Lee changing the fight phase
  • Small samples add uncertainty to the numerical comparison

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Erosa
Key Advantages
  • JeongYeong Lee leads in takedown defense (73% vs 62%)
  • A momentum swing could expose the less-tested defensive layer
  • Small samples add uncertainty to the numerical comparison
Potential Concerns
  • Julian Erosa leads in significant-strike pace (6.18 vs 3.38)
  • Julian Erosa leads in takedown activity per 15 minutes (1.73 vs 0.63)
  • Julian Erosa leads in submission activity per 15 minutes (0.71 vs 0.32)
AI Analysis

Julian Erosa's blend of measurable phase advantages and repeatable scoring routes produces a 56-44 analyst-model lean.

Forecast

Julian Erosa is projected to win the higher share of repeatable scoring exchanges, but the matchup remains competitive and sensitive to early phase control.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

Julian Erosa projects best when the fight stays in the phases reflected by the stronger pace and defensive metrics, while JeongYeong Lee can change the matchup through pressure, transitions and sustained control. The projection stays conservative because career aggregates do not capture every tactical adjustment, and limited UFC samples are down-weighted.

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