← UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs NolanLucia SzabovaTainara Lisboa

Lucia Szabova vs Tainara LisboaUFC Fight Night: Moicano vs Nolan

Lucia Szabova vs Tainara Lisboa — Women's Flyweight — was scheduled for Saturday, October 31, 2026 at UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs Nolan in Meta APEX, Las Vegas. Official result not yet recorded. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

Prelims · Women's FlyweightID · A8C9986A-7039-4317-A018-1021EF1A9715

Unranked · Women's Flyweight

Lucia Szabova

"Silent Killer"

12-0-0 · Muay Thai

Unranked · Women's Flyweight

Tainara Lisboa

7-4-0 · Muay Thai

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Szabova

49%

Edge2%

Lisboa

51%

Skill Comparison

79
76
Striking
66
74
Wrestling
68
83
Cardio
73
53
Takedown Defense
82
82
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

SzabovaMetricLisboa
5' 7"Height5' 7"
67"Reach67"
28Age35
—Stance—
—Finish Rate86%

Career Records

SzabovaMetricLisboa
—Wins by KO/TKO3
—Wins by Submission3
—First-Round Finishes3
—Sig. Strikes / Min2.01
—Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min2.88
—Striking Accuracy44%
—Striking Defense46%
—Knockdown Avg / 15 min0
—Takedowns / 15 min1.67
—Takedown Accuracy5%
—Takedown Defense53%
—Submissions / 15 min0.28
00:00Avg. Fight Time13:28

Strike Distribution

Lisboa

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

60%

Body

35%

Leg

5%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Lisboa

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 60%Standing60%
Clinch — 38%Clinch38%
Ground — 2%Ground2%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

Latest News

— No recent news —

Szabova

Strengths

  • Lucia Szabova can build offense around the matchup's most repeatable phase
  • Lucia Szabova's path improves if early exchanges establish tempo
  • Clean defense-to-offense transitions can protect Lucia Szabova's preferred range

Weaknesses

  • Tainara Lisboa can disrupt that route by forcing phase changes
  • A momentum swing could expose the less-tested defensive layer

Opportunities

  • Establish the preferred phase early
  • Turn measurable advantages into repeatable scoring sequences

Threats

  • Tainara Lisboa changing the fight phase
  • Small samples add uncertainty to the numerical comparison
Lisboa

Strengths

  • Tainara Lisboa can disrupt that route by forcing phase changes
  • A momentum swing could expose the less-tested defensive layer
  • Small samples add uncertainty to the numerical comparison

Weaknesses

  • Lucia Szabova can build offense around the matchup's most repeatable phase
  • Lucia Szabova's path improves if early exchanges establish tempo

Opportunities

  • Force Lucia Szabova away from the projected win condition
  • Exploit transitions after the first defensive layer

Threats

  • Lucia Szabova can build offense around the matchup's most repeatable phase
  • Clean defense-to-offense transitions can protect Lucia Szabova's preferred range

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Lisboa
Key Advantages
  • Lucia Szabova can build offense around the matchup's most repeatable phase
  • Lucia Szabova's path improves if early exchanges establish tempo
  • Clean defense-to-offense transitions can protect Lucia Szabova's preferred range
Potential Concerns
  • Tainara Lisboa can disrupt that route by forcing phase changes
  • A momentum swing could expose the less-tested defensive layer
  • Small samples add uncertainty to the numerical comparison
AI Analysis

Tainara Lisboa's blend of measurable phase advantages and repeatable scoring routes produces a 51-49 analyst-model lean.

Forecast

Tainara Lisboa is projected to win the higher share of repeatable scoring exchanges, but the matchup remains competitive and sensitive to early phase control.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

Lucia Szabova projects best when the fight stays in the phases reflected by the stronger pace and defensive metrics, while Tainara Lisboa can change the matchup through pressure, transitions and sustained control. The projection stays conservative because career aggregates do not capture every tactical adjustment, and limited UFC samples are down-weighted.

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